More than one in every five cars that will be sold this year in the world will be electric (in its different modalities) and there will be 17 million units. To assess the impact, it is enough to know that the same numbers of this type of vehicles were sold in the first three months of 2024 as in all of 2020. This has been calculated by the International Energy Agency (IEA), in a report on the sector that has been made known today.
China is confirmed as the most dynamic market: 45% of the cars sold in the Asian giant are electric. In Europe, however, there is a certain delay, only one in four cars that leave the dealership has these characteristics. Partly it is a question of price, cost and affordability.
In China, more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already cheaper to buy than their conventional equivalents. However, in Europe and the United States, purchase prices for cars with internal combustion engines remain lower on average, although market competition is expected to intensify and battery technologies improve to reduce prices in the United States. next years. Even when initial prices are high, the lower operating costs of electric vehicles mean that the initial investment is recovered over time. But how much?
The report states that there is a lot of difference between the different markets and that it is difficult to find a representative average data, also depending on the type of vehicle. In some countries, electric ones already pay (China or Norway). But on a global scale, the IEA estimates that the total cost of ownership of this type of vehicle (including purchase price, insurance, consumption, subsidies, maintenance, etc.) will reach parity (compared to combustion cars) only within seven years, at least in the countries with the largest fleet.
If you look at the details, for example in Germany if the initial price of a medium-sized electric vehicle was 20% higher than the conventional one, after five years the savings end up balancing the economic effort at the beginning. However, with the electric SUV it would take longer: up to 10 years, to achieve savings of 1,800 euros per year from then on thanks to the electric car.
To this we must add that there are still many differences in purchase prices, which, the study admits, can demotivate the consumer. For example, in France the premium for electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles ranges from 50% for the smallest vehicles to 30% for the largest models.
The high cost of electric vehicles is also due to the type of the best-selling model, because 70% of manufacturers' offers are SUVs, that is, large cars, since this allows companies to increase their margins. The SUV also requires batteries that are on average twice as large, which ultimately ends up having an impact on the cost list.
Another problem is that larger batteries require high mineral consumption, aggravating geopolitical tensions over global value chains, according to the study.
In any case, the IEA emphasizes, the trend is that electric vehicles will ultimately end up being more convenient in the next decade. The thing is that we will have to wait (still) a little longer. A growing adoption of small electric cars could contribute to the definitive emergence of a market that is currently within the reach of a few.
