For years most of the conflicts between countries have taken place to gain control of the territory. It is the news of these days in Ukraine. But in the future it may not be so.
There are still areas to explore on the planet. For example, 80% of the seabed is unknown exactly. And space is a huge area of great potential, albeit already very congested near the Earth's atmosphere.
The economic businesses that arise from the depths of the oceans and from nearby orbits will mark the geopolitical tensions of the coming years, according to a report by the insurer Marsh entitled Political risk report 2022 that was released a few days ago.
It is estimated that the economic projects related to water, between those in force and those already announced, have a value of 170,000 million euros, according to Fitch. The marine environment is a source of food, maritime connections and raw materials. But it is largely unknown despite occupying more than twice the space on our planet than the mainland.
International trade bottlenecks and sudden crises are already occurring on some of the trade routes, from the Black Sea to the South China Sea via the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Aden and the Northern Sea Route. The latter, due to the effect of climate change, is going to be key. Some 85 ships transited this route through the North Pole in 2021. But the fact that their route, which saves time and money, passes through Russian territorial waters, "increases the risks of confiscation and expropriation."
Under the waters, the cake is also succulent. We must not forget that according to the OECD, 70% of the largest hydrocarbon deposits discovered in the first decade of this century are under the sea. As reservoirs in shallow waters (less than 400 meters) are depleted, production shifts to greater depths.
Japan has 98% of its exclusive marine economic zone mapped and can plan a detailed exploitation strategy. France is the country with the largest extension of these maritime rights, which extend up to 8% of the globe's surface thanks to its overseas territories and departments. A wealth for fishing and minerals that the French protect with 7,000 military personnel.
"The extraction of minerals such as cobalt, zinc, manganese, titanium, iron and gold from the seabed is perhaps the most controversial chapter in the race for underwater resources, although it could be crucial to complement the energy transition", warns Luca Moneta, report author and political risk analyst at Marsh.
This week, even the G-7 has issued a statement calling for “caution regarding the extraction of marine minerals and the potential risks and impacts of deep-sea mining operations so that the environment is not seriously harmed”.
Today, extraction is expensive and takes place near the coast. It is mainly sand and other useful materials for the construction industry. “But the growth of technology and the need for a low-emissions future have brought commercial interest in minerals between 800 and 6,500 meters below sea level to the fore. For example, the Clarion-Clipperton area alone, in the Pacific Ocean, would contain more manganese, nickel, cobalt, titanium and yttrium than all the continental reserves”, says Moneta.
In 1960, there were two countries investing in space. Today there are more than 70 and counting. The number of commercial satellites continues to skyrocket and in the coming decade, the current 4,500 may reach 100,000. The value of this industry – beyond space tourism – according to Morgan Stanley, is 357,000 million euros and by 2040 the figure may exceed one billion. Currently, 41% of the largest venture capitalists have put money into this sector. The use of satellites is not limited to telecommunications: they offer monitoring services for agriculture or infrastructure.
Last year there were more than 1,000 launches, which are getting cheaper. In the seventies, they cost the equivalent of 16,800 euros per kilo, today we are at less than 2,800. “The involvement of private and public actors adds an element of complexity when managing possible conflicts in space and their consequences, while the limited ground infrastructure to launch vectors and the planning required for these missions are affected by bilateral relations. , international sanctions and possible retaliation”, explain Marsh sources.
The European Space Agency estimates the presence in orbit of 36,500 artificial objects larger than ten centimeters, one million between one and ten centimeters, and 330 million between one millimeter and one centimeter. As international treaties provide that each country owns what it launches into the cosmos, many countries are developing technologies to eliminate space debris.
However, this activity could lead to interference, crashes, and even capture of satellites. "An impact from a small piece of debris or debris could damage satellite equipment, with the risk of exacerbating conflicts," they say at Marsh.
Without counting the confrontations that can arise from the extraction of resources as a result of the colonization of new planets. In this case, the study concludes, "a militarization can transform an immense economic opportunity into a confrontation between new and old powers of unknown dimensions."
