The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) publishes this Wednesday its second barometer with vote estimates after the general elections of July 23, whose field work, as usual, was carried out in the first days of the month, shortly after the debate of failed investiture of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and in the midst of the debate on the amnesty that the independentists demand from the acting President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, who received on October 3 the order from the King to submit to the investiture, for which there is still no date.
The October barometer will then be able to reflect the possible electoral effects of the investiture debate that, without the possibility of moving forward, the leader of the PP turned into a kind of motion of censure against the acting president for his eventual subsequent pacts with the independentistas to remain in Moncloa, particularly regarding amnesty and self-determination. A motion of censure that was not even answered by Sánchez himself, who delegated the replies to his deputy Óscar Puente, former mayor of Valladolid after an agreement between PP and Vox to evict him despite having won the municipal elections of 28-M. A decision that outraged the PP.
Shortly before this debate, on September 20, Sánchez, without talking about amnesty, already paid for it from New York by pointing out that the political crisis of 2017 in Catalonia "never had to lead to judicialization" so "what we have done since then it is trying to return to politics what never had to leave politics." However, on October 6, the already candidate for the investiture referred to the amnesty to warn that the analysis that the second vice president was going to present and leader of Sumar, Yolanda Díaz, on the 9th was not the proposal of the Socialist Party. "It is not the position of the PSOE," said Sánchez, suggesting that the socialists had another one.
In parallel to the debate on the amnesty, the debate on self-determination and the referendum has also reared its head these weeks, which broke out in parallel with Feijóo's failed investiture but in the Parliament where the general policy debate was being held. ERC and Junts agreed on a resolution proposal in which both parties undertook not to make president anyone who did not commit to working "to make the conditions for holding the referendum effective." PSOE and PSC came out with a statement that rejected self-determination, to settle any controversy in this regard. However, ERC, which in this negotiation for Sánchez's investiture is being relegated by Junts, is trying to install the idea that the amnesty has already been agreed and that the important thing now is to work for the resolution of the conflict that would happen, to its trial, for agreeing to a referendum with the State.
The September barometer gave Sánchez the victory with 33.5% of the estimated vote, almost two points more than those obtained by the PSOE on 23-J, while placing Feijóo second with 31.7% of the votes, a loss of 1.3 points compared to the elections. Sumar lost four tenths compared to the July elections, to reach a vote estimate of 11.9% and in third position and Vox lost 1.3 points to obtain 11.1% of the votes.
