The president of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, will win the general elections on July 23 with a slight margin over the general secretary of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, according to the pre-election survey released this Wednesday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), unless 48 hours for the start of the electoral campaign. The survey, however, does not grant an absolute majority to PP and Vox and leaves Sumar as the third force, thanks to which the chief executive could achieve an absolute majority and therefore govern only with the votes of Yolanda Díaz.
For the first time since July, the body led by the socialist José Félix Tezanos gives victory to the popular leader both in estimated vote and in allocation of seats. Specifically, the PP would obtain, according to the survey, 31.4% of the votes and between 122 and 140 seats in Congress, comfortably surpassing the results of 2019 (120 seats). But according to the CIS, this victory would not give Feijóo governance since his natural ally, Vox, would be left with between 21 and 29 seats, which would mean a loss of between 13 and 31 seats compared to the 2019 elections. the highest band of the estimates of seats for PP and Vox, 169 deputies, the two formations would remain seven seats away from the absolute majority, a distance that seems difficult to overcome.
An absolute majority that could reach the sum of the PSOE and Sumar. The survey gives the Socialists 31.2% of the votes, the same percentage that was given in the June barometer published two weeks ago, and which translates into a range of between 115 and 135 seats. Figures that exceed the results of 2019 by more than three points. The survey gives Sumar between 43 and 50 seats with a vote estimate of 16.4%.
Between the two left formations in the widest band they could reach 185 deputies, which would mean a comfortable absolute majority (176). However, the fork is very wide and PSOE and Sumar could also remain in the lowest estimates at 158 deputies. They would lack 18 seats to achieve it.
To explain the good results of the PP it is interesting to consult the map of the CIS forecasts. The popular ones are imposed in all the Andalusian provinces, traditionally a socialist stronghold, except in Huelva where the two formations tie. And the resistance of the PSOE can be explained by the force with which it breaks into Catalonia, where it wins in the four circumscriptions and takes between 18 and 22 deputies out of the 48 in dispute.
And here the pro-independence and nationalist forces come into play that could lead to an eventual investiture of Pedro Sánchez. In this sense, the CIS predicts a severe setback for Esquerra, which would go from its current 13 deputies to between 5 and 7, after the support it has given the Executive in the last legislature and losing some 300,000 votes in the recent municipal elections. Meanwhile, Junts would not capitalize on these losses from the Republicans and of its 8 seats it would only manage to retain between 3 and 6.
In the Basque Country, according to the CIS, there would be a surprise by EH Bildu over the PNV. Those of Arnaldo Otegi could achieve between 4 and 7 deputies (now they have 5) while the jeltzales would remain in between 3 and 5 of the 6 they currently hold.
The CIS also shows how doubt is the key. According to the survey, 13.8% of voters still have doubts about their vote among various parties or coalitions. Within this percentage, 36.4% doubt between voting for the PSOE and Sumar, while 16.5% doubt between the PP and Vox. In this sense, 63% have already decided on their vote, so the future of the electoral campaign and the final result of the doubts can decide the balance
Regarding the preference as president of the Government, those surveyed keep Pedro Sánchez in Moncloa, with 28.5%, two points away from the president of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who is the favorite for a 26 .7% Without news, the second vice president of the Government and Sumar candidate, Yolanda Díaz, is the third, with 17.3%.
An overwhelming majority of those consulted (65.5%) believe that the PP will win the elections compared to 19.5% who believe that the PSOE will. In contrast, 31% of those surveyed would like the Socialists to win, while 28.4% would prefer the Populares to win.
The best valued leader is once again the Second Vice President of the Government, Yolanda Díaz, with a score of 4.70 out of 10, followed closely by President Pedro Sánchez, with a 4.68, which improves his result from the barometer for May , when he obtained a 4.39. The leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, remains in third position among the preferences of those surveyed to be president, with 4.30, somewhat above the 4.11 that he obtained in the previous poll. He is followed by the general secretary of Podemos, Ione Belarra, with 3.12, and the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, with 2.96.
In assessing the management of the coalition government, those surveyed are divided. 48.9%, almost half, rate it as bad or very bad, while 43.3% consider it good or very good. However, the majority censure the political performance that the PP has developed in the opposition: 71.1% consider it bad or very bad and only 18.5% think it has been good or very good.
With regard to management, those surveyed believe that the PP is the most qualified to deal with the economy (48.9%), compared to 39.2% who think that the PSOE is. Citizen security is another issue that tips the balance in favor of the PP: 48.5% compared to 36.6% for the PSOE. However, 48% believe that the PSOE manages employment better, compared to 40.6% who choose the PP. As for infrastructures, there is almost a tie, in favor of the PP, with 41.8% choosing it as the best manager compared to 39.2% who think the PSOE is.
And in the rest of the folders, the respondents clearly choose the PSOE as more qualified for their management: education (51.2% compared to 36.4% for the PP), social policy (63.2% the PSOE and 24.2 % the PP), housing (47.5% and PSOE and 35.8% the PP), immigration (46.9% the PSOE and 36% the PP), or environment (57.9% the PSOE and 24, 1% the PP).
