The PSOE would win the municipal elections next Sunday by achieving 30.2% of the votes followed by the PP, which would be the second force with 27.9% of the ballots, according to the Flash survey carried out by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS ) and that you published that Monday, the last day on which the law allows you to publish surveys.
However, with respect to the macro-survey that the CIS published before the electoral campaign began, a drop of one and a half points can be seen for the Socialists in vote estimation, coinciding with a rise of six tenths for the popular ones, which narrows the margin of the victory that the demoscopic organism grants to the party of Pedro Sánchez. If on May 11 the PSOE prevailed by more than 4 points, today it does so by almost half, 2.3.
According to the survey, carried out between May 16 and 18 and with a sample of 4,549 interviews, Vox and Podemos would tie with 8% and Ciudadanos would remain with 2% of the votes. Thus, the party that most benefited from the electoral campaign, which began on May 12 and which has been marked by the inclusion of exetarras in the EH Bildu lists, would be that of Santiago Abascal, who at that time had an estimated vote 6.8%, 1.2 points less than now.
Regarding the Catalan independence parties, Esquerra would clearly prevail with an estimated 2.5% of the vote while JxCat, whose main electoral asset is the mayor of Barcelona Xavier Trias, would remain with 1.4%, when at the beginning of the campaign the CIS gave him up to 2.4%.
In the particular battle between the PNV and EH Bildu, the CIS puts the jeltzales ahead with an estimated vote of 1.5% while giving the abertzales 1.2% of the votes, when at the beginning of the campaign gave them a tie at 1.4.
The study by the public institute also reveals that more than half of those surveyed (55.7%) rate the management carried out by their mayor over the last year as very good or good and that one in four citizens decide their vote during the campaign electoral. 7.7% decide during the day of reflection and 6.2% on the same day of the elections. Therefore, practically 40% of voters decide their vote from the electoral campaign.
On the other hand, almost seven out of ten respondents affirm that they vote according to what they are most convinced at that moment, one party or another, and almost three out of ten indicate that they always vote for the same formation.
The CIS also asks about the usefulness of electoral propaganda typical of these days and whose rejection (you can request not to receive it) has multiplied by ten compared to 2019. In this sense, only three out of ten citizens see it as useful while close to 70% consider it unnecessary.
