The effects of high inflation are also reflected in Catalonia with a slowdown in growth, as reflected in the forecasts of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce. Yesterday, the institution's study service lowered the estimate of GDP growth from 4.8% to 4% this year as a result of inflation. For 2023, the forecast is for the economy to grow by 2.6%, one point less than in the previous estimate. Despite this correction, the Chamber believes that the pre-pandemic level will recover in 2023, three years after the covid began to wreak havoc on the economy.
However, the Chamber warned that if there were a cut in the supply of Russian gas, Catalonia and the whole of Europe could enter a recession. The growth revisions are along the same lines as those announced by the Bank of Spain this week and are based on a more pronounced adjustment in 2023 than in the current year.
Where a strong revision has been carried out is in the inflation forecasts. Next year a rise of 7.5% is expected, which is half a point more than estimated in April. In 2023 it would moderate to 2.9%, 1.1% less than previously estimated.
The report highlights that job creation, exports and the recovery of foreign tourism will be the main drivers of growth in the Catalan economy this year.
As negative factors, the president of the Chamber, Mònica Roca, pointed out yesterday the inflationary pressures, the rise in interest rates that will affect consumption and investment and, although it is not the entity's main forecast scenario, the risk of that Europe "suffers" a gas supply crisis during the winter, reports Efe.
The director of the study service, Joan Ramon Rovira, recalled that employment in Catalonia is at an all-time high and the rate of temporary employment has been gradually reduced since the labor reform came into force in January this year.
According to Rovira, the fact of having a very dynamic labor market is one of the causes that explains the resilience that consumption is having, which continues to increase moderately, despite the current economic uncertainty.
The Chamber's business confidence indicator for the third quarter of 2022 increased by 6.5% compared to the previous quarter, especially in the services sector.
