With the date of the inauguration debate of the Popular Party candidate, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, —set by the president of Congress for September 26 and 27— a new calendar opens with two different paths through which the future of politics: one that ends before November 27 with the formation of a government; or the other that ends with new elections on January 14.
On the second day of the investiture debate to which the leader of the popular will submit, the first vote will be held, in which he needs an absolute majority to leave the Chamber as President of the Government. At this time, Núñez Feijóo has 172 votes tied up —Partido Popular, Vox, Coalición Canaria and UPN—, so the first vote is doomed to failure. That same day, September 27, the clock would begin to tick. The countdown would be activated.
The president of the PP would have a new opportunity 48 hours after the first vote. It would be on Friday, September 29, when he would earn a simple majority —more yeses than noes— to be sworn in as Prime Minister. For this scenario, the leader of the popular will seek during this month that the PNV and Junts abstain, as La Vanguardia has advanced.
The clock that would activate on September 27 has a deadline of November 27. Two months according to article 99 of the Constitution, which explains that if no candidate is elected in that period, the king will dissolve the Cortes Generales and call new elections, which must be held within a period of 47 days, that is, on the 14th from January.
But in those two months political activity can be hectic. If Núñez Feijóo fails, King Felipe VI could convene a new round of consultations —like the one that ended yesterday with the designation of the leader who won the elections— in search of a new candidate to form a government. And it is at this point that Pedro Sánchez keeps his trick. With more room to negotiate the support of nationalist and pro-independence parties, the acting president of the Government could go to Zarzuela with the tied votes that guarantee the success of the investiture.
In that case, the liturgy would be repeated. After a round of contacts by Felipe VI, the monarch would once again designate a new candidate. The president of the Congress, Francia Armengol, after consulting with the second candidate, would set new dates for the investiture debate that should be held before the November 27 deadline.
Sánchez currently has 152 supports, the 121 seats of the Socialist Party and the 31 deputies of Sumar, with whom he intends to govern in coalition. He still needs to close agreements with ERC (7), EH Bildu (6), BNG (1), PNV (5) and the one that is presented as the most complicated, JxCat, with seven deputies.
If he doesn't get it either, Spain would go back to the polls. This scenario is not improbable in the pools of the Popular Party, but neither in those of the PSOE. Armengol, with the complete confidence of Sánchez, has led Feijóo's investiture debate at the end of September with two intentions, according to parliamentary sources. One, to satisfy the PP candidate who was asking for time to speak with the groups to gather support. Two, prevent the established deadlines from making election day coincide in the middle of Christmas.
And it is that if on November 27 there is no Government in Spain, the King would dissolve the Cortes Generales to call general elections 47 days later. The polling stations would open their doors on the morning of Sunday, January 14. For these hypothetical elections, the electoral campaign would begin on January 5.
As it is an election repetition, the deadlines —and expenses— of the campaign would be shortened, which would start with the traditional pasting of posters on the night of the Three Wise Men.
