Twenty points behind Labor in the polls, Britain's Conservatives are clinging to a straw and see solving the problem of illegal immigration as the only plausible way to win the election at the end of next year. For this reason, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak yesterday outlined a radical plan to stop the arrival of small boats through the English Channel. It consists of detaining ipso facto those who appear in this way, returning them to their places of origin or deporting them to Rwanda (London and Kigali have signed an agreement to that effect) and forever denying them the possibility of legally settling in this country and requesting the nationality.
The leader of the Labor opposition, Keir Starmer, has denounced the strategy as irretrievably doomed to failure, because it goes against the European Convention on Human Rights and the UN Convention on refugees, and would be blocked in court. But government officials believe they have found a legal mechanism to circumvent that problem. In the worst case, Sunak will be able to claim before the voters that he has done everything possible, but it is justice and his political rivals who prevent the implementation of the plan.
So far this year alone, and despite the winter weather, 4,576 asylum seekers have arrived by boat on the shores of Kent, and it is estimated that by 2023 some 85,000 will do so, a new record (Germany receives twice as many) . Sunak will travel to Paris on Friday to seek the collaboration of President Emmanuel Macron in a joint plan to reduce legal immigration through the English Channel, for the French police to be much more proactive, and to be able to return to France those who try to cross in small boat.
This is an issue that greatly irritates many socially conservative voters in the affected coastal regions and in the north of England, who see the presence of foreigners as a threat to their standard of living, accusing them of stealing their jobs and overloading social services ( although the statistics do not indicate that this is the case, and in fact they contribute to growing the economy and paying the pensions of an aging population, doing jobs that the English do not want to see, not even in painting). In recent weeks, in an increasingly difficult climate, there have been several attacks on hotels that house asylum seekers. Downing Street's idea is to detain boat arrivals for up to 28 days (as well as suspected terrorists) in abandoned military facilities.
Until now all the attempts of the recent Conservative governments to solve the problem have crashed with practical questions. No flights have been made to Rwanda because they have been prevented by the courts following appeals by lawyers and human rights groups, who consider the strategy barbaric, and none are expected throughout the year, unless Sunak takes an unexpected card out of his sleeve. Downing Street's position is considered by its critics to be quite cynical and contradictory, because after Brexit immigration has actually increased. What has happened is that European workers, who no longer enjoy freedom of movement within the EU, have been more than replaced by Asians and Africans from Commonwealth countries and former colonies.
Stopping illegal immigration is one of Sunak's promises to his compatriots ahead of the upcoming elections. Buoyed by the generally favorable reaction to his new Brexit deal with the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol, his next goal is a radical solution to the "invasion" of small boats. If he succeeded, he would win a lot of points in the eyes of a sector of voters. And if not, he can claim that he at least has tried with all his might.
The cost of the plan, if it manages to make it a reality, is estimated at around 3.5 billion euros, including the agreements with Rwanda to receive deported immigrants. The measures would be accompanied by a kind of general amnesty for the 160,000 asylum seekers whose cases have been blocked for several years in the bureaucratic maelstrom.
London has flirted with outlandish ideas such as preventing the arrival of small boats with police patrolling the Channel on jet skis and machines that make giant waves. The new plan will defy the limits of legality.
