The most active chakras (energy points) of the body politic are currently the following: Pedro Sánchez trying to take the initiative while the government coalition is fraying. Isabel Díaz Ayuso shot in search of an absolute majority in the Community of Madrid, to proclaim herself the factual leader of the Spanish right. We can in guerrilla mode so as not to die in May and to be able to negotiate a seat in preferential class on the Sumar bus, which has engine problems just out of the garage. Those are the three main lines of force with five weeks to go before the municipal and regional elections on May 28.
Sánchez has made a real effort in the last ten days to maintain the political initiative while the coalition that has governed Spain for the last three years appears before public opinion as an artifact about to break. They have been three very difficult years: an epidemic, an erupting volcano, a war on European soil and a drought. An impressive sequence to which we could add the serious unknowns posed by the deployment of artificial intelligence. Three impressive years.
But we are not in a philosophical seminar. We are talking about the political situation. A conjuncture is a dense temporal condensation of local and general factors. For the first time in more than three years, with substantial problems on the horizon, but with good data for the economy, the government coalition is emitting serious signs of weakness. You can reach December politically shattered.
This week the coalition has broken in Congress in the vote of an important law: the amendment of the law of Comprehensive Guarantee of Sexual Freedom, better known as the law of only yes is yes. The PSOE had been looking for a momentary divorce for weeks, to get rid of the dead man and project on UP the responsibility of the legal rulings of a law promoted by the Minister of Equality, Irene Montero, and endorsed by two Socialist Ministers of Justice (Juan Carlos Campo and Pilar Llop) in its parliamentary processing phase. The amendment was approved on Thursday with the favorable vote of the Popular Party, with the consequent satisfaction of those who believe that the only viable way out for Spain is a great coalition between the two great parties, in the German style, or an agreement between the two that will allow them to govern the one with the most seats in a minority, a doctrine defended by Felipe González.
The problem of the socialists with UP is not the bitter taste in their mouths this week. The problem is that UP can be broken before the end of the legislature if the insertion of Podemos in the Sumar platform headed by Vice President Yolanda Díaz is not resolved.
At the moment the Government of Spain is made up of three parties and one entity (PSOE, Podemos, Izquierda Unida and Sumar). If the UP parliamentary group, highly disciplined to date, broke up, the label for the December elections would be: “The End”. Far from clarifying the outlook, Yolanda Díaz's step forward a fortnight ago at the Magariños sports center in Madrid has exacerbated the ongoing tensions. Sumar and Podemos have turned their disagreements into a media spectacle, subjected daily to the blender of social networks. The crisis in that political space may be reaching a point of no return. Sumar studies mathematics to find out if he can do without Podemos. The numbers are not clear at all.
The organic crisis of the government coalition and the collapse of part of the left in May would be the best gift for the Popular Party, at a time when Alberto Núñez Feijóo's team has lowered expectations to avoid disappointment. Faced with this Galician precaution, Isabel Díaz Ayuso is revving up engines. She goes to her for the vote of Vox and for the absolute majority in the Community of Madrid, to perch herself as the factual leader of the Spanish right, of the entire right, before the general elections in December. The results of the PP on 28-M will be the object of detailed study.
