The Russian air offensive against targets in different parts of Ukraine, including targets in cities such as Kiyv and Kharkiv, is a war effort that has its origins in an arms buildup that began last September. Their arsenals are full and winter favors deep operations.
Calculations indicate that since last December 24, Russian forces have launched around 500 strategic projectiles (drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and even some hypersonic missiles) on Ukrainian soil. Only from that day until today, the average monthly number of this type of attacks has multiplied by more than two, the figure of which is 190, as explained by Professor Luis V. Pérez Gil, from the University of La Laguna, an expert in conflict theory.
These figures give a measure of the extent to which Russia was waiting for the appropriate moment to relaunch this type of missions. They have done so when they have had sufficient weapons funds and following a military strategy typical of these dates, in which troop movements are more complicated due to the weather.
For the retired lieutenant general of the Army, Francisco José Gan Pampols, in addition to the stockpile of weapons, the Russians have intensified their bombing in retaliation for certain Ukrainian attacks such as those on the Russian city of Belgorod. In cases like this, “Russia is going to respond immediately and, probably, with more destruction,” comments this high-ranking military officer.
For Gan, this toughening of bombing responds, therefore, to a desire for revenge and, on the other hand, to take advantage of his arsenal to reduce Ukraine's offensive capacity. “They are mainly attacking logistics centers, airport facilities, logistics platforms, arsenals or fuel warehouses,” adds this soldier.
In this he agrees with Professor Pérez Gil: “A certain change in Russian strategy is significant; "They are focusing on military targets and not so much on energy production targets."
Russian forces began a clear slowdown in this type of strategic operations since last September when the great Ukrainian counteroffensive had already lost almost all of its strength. “The Russians were then preserving their strength, while their military industry produced with great intensity,” explains the professor from the University of La Laguna.
As Professor Pérez Gil points out, during that three-month impasse, the Russian arms production complex started working at full speed and, everything indicates, they reached quotas for sophisticated weapons that satisfied the Russian high command. There is, however, no specific data on production levels or the speed of replacement of such materials, as it is considered a state secret.
However, Professor Pérez Gil provides data that allows us to get a more approximate idea of the Russian war effort. “Russia's current defense budget is larger than Ukraine's GDP,” he says. According to this expert, the money that Moscow allocated to military spending amounted to 66 billion dollars, which has been budgeted for 2024 is around 113 billion dollars.
Russia has somehow managed to overcome Western embargoes on cutting-edge technology such as certain chips that allow projectile guidance systems to operate, as has been evident since the end of December.
Ukraine has only been able to partially counteract the latest attacks thanks to its anti-aircraft defenses and has even managed to bomb some targets on Russian soil, with the sinking of the warship Novocherkassk in Crimean waters being the most striking of its operations.
“The Ukrainian forces have held up quite well, but I fear that Russia's plan is to saturate the anti-aircraft defenses using weapons of lower value” than those used to repel the attacks, says Lieutenant General Gan.
An example of this low-cost weaponry are the Iranian drones that Russia has and to which it will have very easy access since it already has, as Gan explains, at least one factory for their manufacture in the territory of the federation.
“We have to remember that Ukraine depends entirely on foreign aid,” concludes this high-ranking military officer.
