The possibility of a nuclear war breaking out has been raised several times during the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Most of the time in the form of simple fear, and not infrequently as a threat in the statements of the Russian leaders, especially by the mouth of Dimitri Medvedev, the former president with a liberal and reformer facade who became one of the most aggressive voices against Ukraine and West. Now, a Norwegian intelligence report indicates that Moscow has already deployed nuclear-armed ships in the Baltic Sea, the first time since the end of the cold war.
"The key part of the nuclear potential is found in the submarines and in the surface ships of the Northern Fleet," says the annual intelligence report of the Nordic country, quoted by Politico.
Warships of the Northern Fleet, whose main base is in Severomorsk (Murmansk) regularly entered the Baltic Sea during the cold war. This would be the first time in the history of modern Russia that they have done so.
The report came out on the same day that the Baltic Sea Fleet was carrying out firing practices with Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, with "virtual launches", detailed the Interfax agency.
The future NATO membership of Finland and Sweden, two countries bordering the Baltic Sea, has prompted numerous warnings from top officials in Moscow in recent months. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is currently vice president of the Russian Security Council, said in late January that in that case "there will be nothing to talk about a future non-nuclear status of the Baltic region."
Nuclear fear is resurfacing at a time when Russia appears to be trying to ramp up its attacks on Ukrainian frontline positions. Her troops try to close the siege on the strategic city of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine, which after six months of fighting is one of the bloodiest battles of the present conflict.
The advances of the Russian troops are small and, in any case, the work of the mercenaries of the Wagner Group. The Russian army shelled the entire front line on Tuesday and attacked 16 towns near Bakhmut with artillery, according to the Ukrainian military command. Kyiv also claims to have repelled a dozen attacks.
According to various Ukrainian and Western sources, these would be the first steps in the massive Russian offensive of which the Kyiv authorities have been warning for weeks. They take place a few days before the one year anniversary of the start of hostilities (February 24) and before the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, delivers the State of the Nation speech before Parliament, which was postponed for the year past and that has been announced for February 21st.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who on Monday "saw the start" of the new Russian offensive, said Tuesday in Brussels that the allies should increase arms supplies to Ukraine, as "there are no signs that the President Putin be prepared for peace." "What we see is the opposite, he is preparing for more war, for new offensives and attacks," he added.
The secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksi Danilov, said on Ukrainian television on Monday that Moscow had started its "big offensive", but assured that it is in its beginnings and that it is running into "big problems". And he stressed that "it is not the offensive that they (the Russians) expected."
The Russian activity of the last few days would form part of these first but slow steps. The Wagner Group announced on Sunday that it had occupied the town of Krasna Hora, ten kilometers from Bakhmut and near Soledar, which it captured last month.
The Russian Defense Ministry said on Monday that its artillery had defeated Ukrainian units in several positions near Kupiansk (Kharkiv), killing 30 soldiers, and had launched several attacks on other towns in Luhansk and Donetsk, with the result of 80 dead Ukrainian servicemen.
“There is not a single square meter of Bakhmut that is safe or not within range of enemy fire and drones,” Pavlo Kirilenko, the Ukrainian governor of Donetsk, said on Ukrainian television on Monday.
For his part, the pro-Russian leader of Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, assured yesterday on the First Russian Channel that there are "fierce fighting" near the city of Ugledar and the village of Paraskovievka. If Russian troops occupy the latter, they could block the road that allows Kyiv to continue supplying its troops in Bakhmut to the north. "There is still no prospect that the Ukrainian army will give up its positions without a fight," he added.
Russia has been trying for months to take control of Bakhmut (70,000 inhabitants before the conflict) and nearby towns. That would allow him to advance towards more important places in the region, such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, in his goal of controlling the entire Donetsk region.
The head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, believes, like other nationalist Russian bloggers who make no secret of their criticism of the army high command, that the Moscow offensive will go slowly. A few days ago Prigozhin said that Russia will need two years to control the entire Donetsk region.
In this they agree with Ukrainian military intelligence, which said on Sunday that "the Russian command does not have sufficient resources to launch large-scale offensive actions" and that it will opt for attempting tactical victories.
Businessman Prigozhin, who has become an influential figure in Moscow in recent months by becoming involved in the hostilities, is coming out of the shadows in which he operated as the conflict progresses.
Yesterday he admitted that he was the one who created and financed the Internet Research Agency, a St. Petersburg company known as the troll factory that the United States accused of interfering in the 2016 presidential election, which Donald Trump won.
The oligarch has been secretly scheming for years in the name of Russian power. After years of denying it, in September 2022 he acknowledged that it was also he who founded the private military company Wagner in 2014. This paramilitary group, which since the summer has also recruited Russian prisoners to fight on the front lines, has taken charge of important military actions in Ukraine, such as the Bakhmut offensive.
