Arriving at these last hours of 2023, it is time to take stock of what has been done and take a look at what 2024 looks like. Economically, it has been a good, bad year: growth barely above 2% due to the exhaustion of post-pandemic forces, increases interest rates and inflation. This has translated into historical highs in employment and declining unemployment rates, although with consumption maintaining its progress with difficulty; It is in this inertia that 2024 can be located, which points to a continuity that the reduction in interest rates should promote.
On the social front, there is no news either: no small part of the country is below the poverty line (more than 20% of families) while the Government, with its anti-crisis measures, and NGOs try to alleviate the situation of large groups that have severe difficulties to make ends meet.
Beyond our problems, we must highlight the morass of the EU, where it seems that we are facing particularly hard times: significant rise of an extreme right unfavorable to the European project, and antithetical positions of the main countries in practically all major policies (Green Pact, immigration, defense, state intervention or foreign relations, as the war in Gaza has shown). In this situation, the Commission's proposal has been the next step: expansion of the club to the Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. We'll see how everything turns out.
On the eastern border, Russia's slight advantage and the growing fatigue of European public opinions, and in particular those of the United States, with unwavering support for Ukraine, are also stabilizing. Meanwhile in the west, and if Trump ends up running and winning, the outlook could change a lot, both for Ukraine and the European Union.
Finally, two additional areas that determine our future. The first, that of the undeclared and latent Sino-North American war: let us hope that the blood does not reach the river, although the tension will not ease. The second, climate change, which in 2023 has acquired a status quo for citizens: heat waves, floods, droughts, fires... A dramatic situation that the climate conference intended to address and, as its final statement has shown, , has not meant any real progress. And not for lack of desire for change: its impossibility derives from a world that is extraordinarily unequal in the generation of CO2: according to the International Energy Agency, 57% of the world's population contributes approximately 20% to emissions, with around of 1.6 tons of CO₂/inhabitant/year, compared to 15 tons per capita in the US, almost nine in the OECD or seven in China.
In short, the new year points to continuity in the near future although potential, and radical, changes in the farthest. Good luck for everybody.
