Declarations with veiled proposals to negotiate peace in Ukraine have followed one another in recent weeks. But the positions are so far apart and so unacceptable to the other side that there is not even hope of a truce this Christmas. Moscow and Kyiv on Thursday ruled out any ceasefire in hostilities for the New Year. And, despite the Ukrainian fears of a strong Russian offensive in the first months of 2023, the feeling is that we are facing a slow conflict and, unfortunately, a long one.
The successful counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops in September, when they forced the Russians to withdraw from Kharkiv province (northeast), placed a highly visible thumbtack on the war map.
In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to forcefully prepare for three different scenarios: resume the offensive, freeze the conflict, or maintain a slow war.
The Ukrainian provinces of Jerson, Zaporiyia (south), Luhansk and Donetsk (east) were annexed. According to the pro-Kremlin media Octagon.Media, this was Moscow’s way of marking an immovable position. Subsequent months have confirmed this position
In addition, the Russian leader called for a partial mobilization. Russian analysts interpreted it as a signal to Kyiv of Moscow's readiness to continue the fight, further seasoned with the dangerous rhetoric of nuclear weapons if Russian territory was attacked or if the West tried to prevent the conflict from freezing.
Mutual mistrust, which already derailed the spring talks in Istanbul, increased with this twist. Ukraine's President Volodimir Zelensky declared that there will be no negotiations with Russia as long as Putin remains their leader, a condition that has also become law.
Last month Zelensky no longer spoke of the veto on Putin, according to US media after being asked to do so in Washington so as not to complicate the approval of aid to Ukraine. But he did not water down Kyiv's principled position: that the Russian army withdraw from all Ukrainian lands before negotiating. This is an inadmissible condition for the Kremlin, as it would mean a shameful defeat that could endanger Putin's leadership.
Winter has not only frozen the battlefield, but also the starting positions of both sides.
This week Zelensky has repeated that Russia should start withdrawing before Christmas as the first step towards ending the conflict. Dimitri Peskov, spokesman for the Russian presidency, rejected him outright on Thursday and stressed his condition to advance in any negotiation: that Kyiv accept the loss of territories in favor of Russia. Weeks earlier, the Russian Foreign Affairs spokeswoman, Maria Zajárova, said that the Ukrainian authorities must accept "the realities that are taking shape."
"There can be no peace in exchange for territories. That is definitely impossible," Mikhailo Podoliak, Zelensky's adviser, told the BBC this month.
Peskov even ruled out that there could be a Christmas truce. "No offers have been received from anyone in this regard" and "this issue is not on the agenda," were his responses when asked by journalists.
On the other side, Ukrainian General Oleksiy Gromov assured that "there will be a complete ceasefire only when there is not a single occupant left on our land."
In recent weeks, the West has begun to insinuate the possibility of a rapprochement to end the conflict, although support for Ukraine is officially declared "as long as it is enough."
Earlier this month US President Joe Biden said he was willing to talk to Putin on the Ukrainian issue, but only if the Russian leader shows real interest in ending the war. Peskov countered that Putin "is always open to negotiations" but that Russia is not ready to give up the annexed "new territories".
On December 2, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged Putin by telephone to find a diplomatic solution "including the withdrawal of Russian troops." But the Kremlin chief lamented that the arrival of Western weapons "makes Kyiv completely rule out the idea of any negotiations."
Talking about peace is not possible as long as both sides see themselves as capable of winning on the battlefield. But without significant progress, the conflict risks freezing over more than winter. And comparisons are already made with the situations of Cyprus or Korea.
It is true that in recent months Russian troops have retreated, but they still control a significant percentage of Ukrainian territory. In addition, he trusts that the incorporation of all the 300,000 reservists recruited in the partial military mobilization of September and October will strengthen his positions and allow him to advance.
In the Ukraine they fear that Russia is preparing a new big offensive. While half of those mobilized have been used to reinforce the battlefield positions, "the other half, approximately 150,000, began training courses in different fields. They need a minimum of three months to be ready. That means they are preparing the next offensive wave, probably in February," Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Thursday.
Ukraine, whose cities have endured bombardment by Iranian missiles and drones for months, hopes to resist with the support of the West. The next aid will be the Patriot defensive batteries, which the United States will send to its ally.
Civil society is also not ready for negotiation. According to a survey by the Levada Center in Moscow, in November more than half of Russians would support a diplomatic solution, although more than 70% said they supported the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine.
In Ukraine, a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed in October that 86% of Ukrainians supported continuing the armed resistance.
Returning to the negotiating table is not entirely ruled out. The parties have left a door open in the figure of the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His mediation has allowed prisoner exchanges as important as the one in September, when Moscow released the last defenders of the city of Mariupol, including members of the Azov battalion; or reach agreements to allow the export of Ukrainian grain. But going further, with the aim of achieving peace, at the moment does not seem possible.
