The dilemma between making butter or cannons formulated by economist Paul A. Samuelson explains a society's production options to satisfy demand. An earlier version by Nazi leader Hermann Göring summarized the thesis in “the cannons will make us stronger; butter, fatter.” To Göring's simplism, Samuelson offered intermediate ways to invest in defense without dismantling the welfare state. But, in essence, the question posed last century is the same one that Europe now faces. Cannons to reinforce the military pillar or butter to support the social protection network.
Two factors converge in the urgency of deciding, the imperialist aggressiveness of Russia and the foreseeable North American isolationism. Putin gloats about the expectations of war in Ukraine and reinforces his thuggishness by threatening his Baltic neighbors, while Trump promises to end the North American subsidy that maintains the European resort. In Europe's worst moment since the Second World War, Trump threatens to close the protective umbrella to "criminals" who do not contribute 2% of their GDP to the Atlantic Pact, that is, for the majority of the members, including Spain, which contributes 1.26%.
This being the case, the opportunity cost is dangerously tilted towards cannons to the detriment of butter. Because even doubling the investment in defense of the countries that form the European pillar of NATO would not compensate for the tens of thousands of soldiers stationed on the continent nor would it replace the North American technological contribution. Therefore, if Washington turns off the tap, Europe's exposure to a Russian blow and its ability to repel it would increase exponentially. True, without Trump in the White House, the hypothesis is less alarming. But the uncertainty and risk that Europe runs is so serious that it is necessary to think about the unthinkable and urgently build its own defense system, without the tutelage of the United States, capable of facing the challenges that lie ahead.
To continue spreading the bread with some butter, perhaps now is the time to fill the cannon arsenals.
