If a week in politics is eternity, when it comes to years or months time expands to cover an infinite variety of scenarios. For example, between 1979 and 1982 there was such a change in Spanish politics that the results of the local and general ones were not at all similar. Naturally, it could be objected that more than three years had passed between the two appointments. And the same between the municipal elections of 1991 and the general ones of 1993 (in this case two years apart), when the Popular Party grew almost ten points in vote share and became an alternative government.
However, eternity in politics can be felt in much less time; for example, in just nine months, as occurred between the local elections of June 1999 and the general ones of March 2000. In the municipal elections, the popular had tied in votes with the PSOE (both around 34% of the ballots). . But in the legislative elections, José María Aznar's PP added ten points in vote share (up to 44.5%) and garnered the first absolute majority of the center-right in democracy.
But the stages of eternity move in multiple directions. For example, the bruised PSOE of the local and regional elections in 1995 managed, only ten months later, to add seven more points (to close to 38% of the ballots) and practically tie with a PP that aspired to win the general elections in March 1996. with a “sufficient majority”. What's more, in the 2007 municipal elections the PP surpassed the PSOE by almost one point and took its victory in the legislative elections the following year for granted. However, nine months later the Socialists prevailed in the general elections by a difference of four points.
Ciudadanos should know better than anyone that the municipal authorities have their own dynamics. The party then led by Albert Rivera doubled its share of the vote (from 7% to 14%) between the local elections in May 2015 and the legislative elections in December 2015. But, sometimes, with its sudden oscillations, the municipal elections can have character premonitory.
Only one month after signing a tie with the PP (around 16% of the ballots) in the April 2019 general elections, Ciudadanos lost more than 45% of its voters in the May municipal elections (and fell below 9 %, compared to 23% of the popular ones). And that premonitory character was confirmed in November of that same year, when Ciudadanos obtained less than 7% of the ballots in the general elections (while the PP resisted around 21%).
However, very often, the ability of municipal elections to anticipate the future is nil: Vox obtained less than 4% of the votes in the local elections in May 2019, but exceeded the 15% quota in the November legislative elections. of that same year. In other words, he quintupled his vote in just six months.
Thus, municipal ones can be dangerously deceptive and create slippery mirages. Perhaps it was one of them that dazzled Pedro Sánchez during the summer of 2019 and encouraged him to go to the electoral repetition. After all, Rajoy had done well with that strategy in 2016. But the sociological left does not work the same as the right and 29% of the municipal ones in May 2019 (or 32% of the European ones of that same day) translated for the PSOE into a modest 28% in the November general elections (seven tenths and three seats less than in April).
In any case, all the parties face the appointment of the municipal and regional elections next May as a preview of the general elections at the end of the course. But, in view of historical experience, the result may not be conclusive. Perhaps the outcome of the regional ones could be more indicative, since their territorial scope goes beyond strictly local factors. However, it is not wise to generalize either.
For example, the result of Aragon may be more predictive than that of the Valencian Community, the square that the PP pursues most vigorously. But we must not forget that Sánchez's PSOE (with Susana Díaz as its candidate) lost Andalusia in December 2018 and, nevertheless, clearly won the general elections six months later (the same as Rajoy after losing Valencia in 2015). And finally, Aznar's PP suffered a humiliating defeat in Castilla La Mancha in 1999, but swept the general elections in 2000.
