The season of greatest circulation of respiratory viruses is approaching. We are experiencing increasing levels of respiratory infection cases: between 50,000 and 60,000 cases weekly in Catalonia. Rhinovirus (colds) predominates, followed by the covid virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza viruses. The number of people admitted to hospitals and ICUs, as well as mortality, remains low.
The WHO has designated a new variant of the coronavirus, called BA.2.86, a descendant of Omicron, as a variant of concern. A subvariant of BA.2.86, called JN.1, which is on the rise, has even greater capacity to escape antibody immunity and can cause more contagions and infections. The most common symptoms so far are similar to a cold, with fever and dry cough. The JN.1 subvariant is a good candidate to dominate the winter covid panorama. Updated vaccines recommended this fall show good efficacy against JN.1. It is expected that they will continue to avoid serious cases, hospitalizations (last week there were 363 people admitted to Catalan hospitals) and deaths from covid.
The flu is slowly accelerating. It is likely that it will recover its usual dynamics and we will enter an epidemic situation in the coming weeks, perhaps after the Christmas holidays. A flu can always get complicated. RSV, which mainly affects very young children, also seems to have returned to its best-known dynamics.
The forecast is therefore for a rain of viruses. It shouldn't catch us off guard. The population that must be protected is that which, if infected, may have more and more serious complications: people over 60 years of age, people with compromised immunity, people with significant chronic pathology and pregnant women. The vaccination campaign is aimed at these groups. Vaccines against covid and flu are our umbrella. To prevent RSV in newborns we have a new antibody (nirsevimab) that serves as an umbrella. There is no vaccine for the common cold: only tissues and hot broth.
The vast majority of the population does not have to be vaccinated (they are under 60 years old, they do not have chronic diseases). On the contrary, all people for whom vaccination is recommended should be vaccinated: they are the most vulnerable and highest risk groups. So far we are not vaccinating enough to reach the 75% coverage recommended by the WHO: we are close to 50%.
Vaccination is the best way to protect ourselves against serious cases of disease and its complications. Vaccines may be annoying, but they are safe and effective. Going out without an umbrella, when it is very likely that it will rain and some of us may get soaked, is a risk that is not worth taking.
