"Winter is coming" is no longer just a phrase from a famous series but also an increasingly repeated economic forecast, both because of the general concept that it implies that we must be prepared for worse times, and because they are going to start later of the summer.
It is also the forecast of the Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas), which in its updated economic forecasts announces a sharp slowdown in the economy after the summer months and without ruling out recession if energy prices skyrocket more than expected. expected.
Funcas maintains growth this year at 4.2%, but lowers it to 2% in 2023, which represents a reduction of more than one point. The key to maintaining the 4.2% increase in GDP this year is that the sharp drop in domestic demand, caused by the loss of purchasing power of consumers due to inflation, is offset by the increase in income from tourism and, to a lesser extent, sales of non-tourist goods and services abroad.
In the fourth quarter of the year, growth will be zero and in the first of 2023 it will be very low. They are forecasts based on stable energy prices, so if there is an increase in these prices it could cause the dreaded recession.
This slowdown in the economy continues into 2023, with an increase in GDP reduced to 2%, a figure that, in any case, is still better than the European average. It is also true that Spain is one of the economies that has more ground to recover, given the drop in GDP caused by the pandemic, much higher than that of other European countries.
Regarding inflation, Funcas forecasts an increase of 8.8% this year and 5% in 2023. It is noteworthy how, according to these calculations, prices would continue at very high levels next year as well.
"A sharp slowdown in growth is combined with persistent inflation," said Raymond Torres, director of the Funcas situation, when presenting the report. It places a scenario in which two forces collide, with the expansive ones losing steam and the recessive ones gaining ground. "The outbreak of inflation threatens to become chronic," adds Torras, referring to the repeated qualifications of temporary nature with which institutions and economists had been placing the increase in prices, until reality has shown that it is here to stay longer than provided.
After the summer, the Spanish economy will face three simultaneous disturbances: geopolitical, energy and monetary, the latter due to the increase in interest rates that the ECB is going to take immediately, and which are probably going to be more abrupt than what was initially planned.
A scenario in which the great challenge is how to contain the loop between prices and wages, without losing competitiveness or social cohesion. Salaries have lost purchasing power this year and, according to Funcas' calculations, they will also lose it in 2023, although to a lesser extent.
That is why they insist on the need for an income pact, whether explicit or implicit, a pact that should also affect pensioners. "Yes, it should include pensions, they are a large component of public spending and of the income that Spaniards receive," said Carlos Ocaña, director general of Funcas.
On the other hand, to make this pact feasible from Funcas they cite examples such as the agreement in the construction sector, in which the recovery of purchasing power has been staggered over several years, to facilitate its realization.
