This text belongs to 'Político', the newsletter that Lola García sends every Thursday to the readers of 'La Vanguardia'. If you want to receive it in your mailbox, sign up here.
The Catalan campaign reaches its final stretch with the candidates exhausted and their arguments hackneyed and worn out. But now is when the parties play it. In these last days. Because it is in this sprint when the vast majority of citizens realize that on Sunday they are summoned to vote and consider what to do. So let's review as a guide what have been the items that have characterized this campaign:
Arguably, these are the first elections in a decade in which independence is not discussed. The parties that advocate the secession of Catalonia continue to have a determining weight in Catalan politics, but they have put aside the promises of a separation on the near horizon. The Junts and ERC candidates demand an agreed referendum, but goals are not imposed with a calendar on the table. They are aware that other issues are priorities, from housing to drought, financing or investments in infrastructure. In some way, the political agenda has returned to 2010. It would even be said that the most reliable proof of this finding is that the polls do not give representation to Ciudadanos, the party that grew the most at the height of the process.
As for the amnesty, it is not in any party's interest to bring it up either. Of course, not Salvador Illa, who has absorbed a lot of voters from Ciudadanos. Only ERC and Junts make some references to the amnesty to take credit for having broken the will of the PSOE. Carles Puigdemont plays this trick in a less explicit, more subliminal way, with the expectation of his return. The electoral poster presents him in a car that symbolizes his return. At first, the former president sent the message that he would only return as the restored president of the Generalitat, now he assumes that he will return for the investiture, be it his own or that of another candidate.
The former president has managed to keep his figure safe from the attacks of his main rivals, the PSC and ERC. Illa does not enter that field so as not to give more prominence to the Junts candidate and to ignore that he holds the key to governability in Spain. And Pere Aragonès has criticized Puigdemont's "personalism", but he also holds back so as not to bother an independence electorate that punishes the fights between both parties and the lack of unity.
To these circumstances we must add that Puigdemont has not participated in any of the electoral debates, to which he has sent number three, Josep Rull, a former councilor with a long convergent career. In the interviews he has given, the former president tries to highlight the shortcomings in ERC's government management to counteract the message that he is only concerned about independence and not the daily problems of Catalans. But he has no need to debate his proposals with his rivals. ERC attempted a face-to-face meeting between Aragonès and Puigdemont to take advantage of the current president's knowledge of the Generalitat. The Republicans even made the formal request in writing, but the Junts candidate has rejected it.
In this way, Puigdemont tries to maintain the image of the “president in exile” and the leader of the independence movement above partisan conflicts. As for his campaign, it is based on a key idea to avoid losing pro-independence voters frustrated with the outcome of the process: it is about sending the message that Junts, at least, is an uncomfortable party for the Spanish State and for the Moncloa. In other words, if it is not yet possible to achieve secession, at least Junts is not going to make things easy for Spain. It is an “intelligent confrontation” of low intensity compared to what Puigdemont once proposed, but a confrontation nonetheless.
The results will dictate the government options, but if the polls do not go wrong, ERC may have the key to the new Catalan executive in its hand. If that were so, Republicans would be faced with an extremely difficult decision. They are the only ones who can agree with both the PSC and Junts, but in both cases it would have high costs for the organization.
If there is a pro-independence majority and Puigdemont has more seats, it will be very difficult for the Republicans to justify not giving him their support, although that would mean supporting their most direct rival and forgetting for a while about being the hegemonic pro-independence party in Catalonia. On the other hand, possible support for Illa could bother the ERC bases, not only because it is the PSC but because of the figure of the socialist leader. For the Republicans, Illa is an exponent of the most conservative and least Catalan socialism, more difficult for his base to assimilate than the agreement they reached with José Montilla at the time.
The polls smile at the PSC and its proposal to close the process and “open a new stage”, but in no poll does it come close to a sufficient majority to govern, not even alongside the commons. Although Illa has tried to cultivate pacts with everyone in recent years, the truth is that Junts resists him and Puigdemont has already made it clear not to count on him. So Illa only has to convince ERC if he wants to govern. And we have already explained that this will not be easy for Republicans. Only if they resist and remain very close to Puigdemont could they take that step with more peace of mind. If not, the nerves in ERC can complicate internal reflection on the pacts.
Although the candidates insist on drawing Illa as a puppet of Sánchez to the extent of ensuring that he would have to sacrifice the presidency of the Generalitat to allow Junts and ERC to govern in Catalonia and continue supporting the PSOE in Madrid, that would be little less than a political suicide for the Catalan socialists. If he has options, Illa will try to be president regardless of the consequences in Spanish politics.
The emergence of Aliança Catalana in the Parliament seems probable. A part of the independence electorate that was frustrated with the expectations of 2017 clung to the fight against “repression” while its leaders were in prison or expatriated. As these circumstances have been mitigated or are in the process of doing so, frustration has taken different forms. A good part has assumed that independence is a long time coming and that it is necessary to insist on the dialogue path. But a small portion has generated unrest with populist overtones that has even led to xenophobia. Thus, the vote for Vox or Aliança Catalana is a vote radicalized by the extremes, but it coincides with being a gesture against everything and everyone. A vote of anger.
Precisely, all the parties except the PP and Ciudadanos signed a commitment yesterday not to agree with Vox or with Aliança Catalana. But there are surveys that reflect that a pro-independence majority would be possible by adding Silvia Orriols' formation. In that case, we will have to see what happens if the pro-independence extreme right decides to support a candidate in case their vote is decisive.
In the PP, particular disputes are resolved. The popular ones can only grow, since they are at their lowest levels: three deputies. But politics is management of expectations and among those of the PP is leaving Vox behind. Right now there are surveys for all tastes at this point.
Furthermore, in the background the clash between Alberto Núñez Feijóo and the candidate Alejandro Fernández is being resolved. So it is not difficult to intuit that if the PP obtains a good result and surpasses Vox it will be Feijóo's credit and if the extreme right is ahead, Fernández will be to blame.
There is also the possibility that the PP could decide with its abstention whether Illa governs or the independence movement, as happened in Barcelona City Council. In that case, the decision would be Feijóo's, since it is Génova, and not Fernández, who controls the PP electoral list and, therefore, the resulting parliamentary group.
Nothing is written and, although the polls point to trends, every election night brings some surprises. Those that the Catalans decide this Sunday with their vote.
