The population of Catalonia will grow slightly above the Spanish and EU average. In the year 2022 it was 7,748,000 people and it is estimated that in the year 2040 it will be 8,388,000. In the years of the economic boom, from 2000 to 2010, Catalonia had a strong population growth, 1,288,000 people, 1.9% per year, while from 2010 to 2022 it has only been around 0.36 %, equal to what is estimated in the projections made up to 2040. In Catalonia the fertility rate is very low, 1.3 children per woman. To maintain the current population level, it would have to increase to 2.1. It is clear, then, that population growth has been made possible basically by immigration. This was very high in the period 2000-2010 in which the net increase was more than one million people, while from this year to 2022, due to the financial crises and the covid, net immigration only grew by 73,000 people .
To guarantee the social progress of a country, it is necessary to have a dynamic, educated and well-formed society that creates wealth and employment, respects the environment, and enjoys a high degree of social cohesion. Everything is easier to achieve in a country where the population is growing and the demography is rejuvenating. A case to watch is the evolution of Japan, since it is undergoing a strong ageing. Currently, the population is 125.6 million people, but it is estimated that it will decrease to about 100 million around 2040. Low fertility –similar to the Catalan one– and the policy of curbing immigration will have important repercussions. It will mean a decrease in the workforce, economic potential and tax revenue. Thus, on the one hand, there will be an excess of housing and schools will be closing and, on the other, there will be more demand for healthcare, residences for the elderly and pensions. They are demands that are difficult to finance. It is convenient for advanced countries to have a moderate increase in the population that will energize them, for which governments have to make an attractive family policy and at the same time facilitate the increase in immigration in a controlled manner. Both for humanitarian reasons and to cover the needs of qualified personnel to boost the economy, the EU and Spain have to opt for an open and orderly immigration and community integration policy.
In Catalonia, the rejuvenation and increase of the population would create wealth and employment, guaranteeing future economic and social well-being. It would require promoting the reception, education and training of immigrants and the construction of social housing and social integration programs. An increase in the population of around 1% per year would surely be a good response to the challenges of the future. A strong and dynamic Catalonia would have more weight within Spain and the EU, something that would allow it to better defend its interests.
