Iván Redondo warned this Monday in La Vanguardia: if Vox comes third in the Valencian regional elections ahead of Compromís there will be no Botànic. "Ximo does not depend on Ximo. Error. We can't even guarantee the Botànic. The real operation is to 'save Compromís'. If Vox is third, it's over" added this political analyst in his disturbing warning. At the moment, no published survey, nor the results obtained in 2019, support this hypothesis; true, but there is something else because, in addition to being third, the distance from Vox must be significant if, finally, the PP is the party with the most votes and with the most deputies. The fearsome Ley d'Hont would favor the right. The threats are growing and, as Iván Redondo adds, "the 'Oltra factor' is being sorely missed. And Joan Baldoví, a great politician, mobilizes like the Bloc in the campaign." Let's look at some data.
The Spanish radio communication ecosystem is profusely agitating national issues, such as the controversy of the Bildu lists, an issue that excites, and a lot, Vox voters. From the kitchens of the PSPV, this newspaper was warned yesterday that a certain transfer of the vote from Ciudadanos to the PP could be redirected towards the force of Santiago Abascal in the Valencian Community, especially in large cities. Vox obtained in 2019 10.44% of the Valencian votes and ten regional deputies. A complete success, but it remained as the fifth force in the Valencian Parliament, behind PSPV, PP, Ciudadanos and Compromís. The Valencian coalition, with Mónica Oltra as a candidate for the Generalitat Valenciana, achieved 16.45% of the votes (18.19% in 2015) and 17 deputies (19 in 2015). The recent CIS survey for this Valencian 28M gives Compromís a range of between 15 and 19 deputies; and Vox between 8 and 12. Polls and recent history favor Compromís over Vox, but nothing is certain in this meeting where the voter begins to polarize, to the right and left.
In Compromís, the aforementioned concern hardly exists. On the contrary, the campaign team, with its own data, is confident that the coalition will obtain better results than in 2019, both at the regional and municipal levels; a long way from Vox; which is the key. If so, the Botànic would be almost guaranteed, with the confidence that Unides Podem will also manage to overcome the 5% barrier. Compromís hopes to repeat its success in large cities such as Valencia, Alzira or Carcaixent, all of which currently have a Valencian mayor. It is also appreciated that Unides Podem has abandoned the sharp criticism against Compromís for the complicity of the Valencianists with Yolanda Díaz. The Botànic ships seem to be all sailing in the same direction and with clarity regarding who the rivals are: the right-wing PP and Vox.
Compromís is a key piece of 28M; more than ever. Ximo Puig will not be able to be president if the Valencian coalition does not reach the appointment with strength, which also worries the PSPV. Any sign of weakness in the electoral market could explode all the Botànic's forecasts. That is the great challenge for Joan Baldoví, to consolidate the Valencian formation not only in third place; also a long way from Vox, a long way. It's all or nothing, and there will only be one chance.
