When he lands in Cambodia this Saturday to attend the annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Joe Biden will become the first American president to make this trip since 2017. At a time of growing tensions with China, the American aspires to score points and boost its ties with the region, which falls under the direct sphere of influence of Beijing. After this warm-up, the main course will come next Monday, when Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, hold their first physical face-to-face as presidents in Bali on the eve of the G-20 summit.
It is the second time this year that Biden travels to the area (in the spring he visited his allies South Korea and Japan) and the second meeting with the ASEAN leaders, to whom in May he promised during a meeting in Washington 150 million in aid for infrastructure, security and other fields. An important figure but that pales next to the 1,500 million dollars promised last year to the bloc by China only as aid against the pandemic.
Historically, ASEAN - made up of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Burma - has tried to maintain a balance between the two superpowers, and its members uphold principles such as the search for consensus, avoid criticism among themselves and maintain their independence to relate to different actors in pursuit of their interests.
On paper, China appears to have more clout, not least thanks to its economic might: It is the bloc's biggest trading partner for 13 years, with two-way trade topping $500 billion this year, according to Bloomberg. In addition, the economies of some countries such as Cambodia or Laos are strongly conditioned by the loans granted by Beijing within the framework of the New Silk Road, which have served to finance mega-infrastructure projects such as ports and high-speed train lines.
Even so, the growing assertiveness of Chinese foreign policy under Xi, with the maneuvers around Taiwan, the creation of military bases in the waters of the South China Sea or its refusal to accept a "code of conduct" in the areas in dispute , has generated great discomfort among some of its members.
That belligerence is exploited by Washington, which promotes itself as a guarantee of free and safe waters. In recent times, countries such as Indonesia or the Philippines have been in favor of increasing the purchase of American weapons or carrying out joint maneuvers, although always carefully so as not to irritate the Asian giant.
In relation to these pressures to take sides, the Singaporean foreign minister, Vivian Balakrishan, defended the bloc's neutrality last week. “ASEAN member states, obviously including Singapore, want to maintain good relations with the US and Beijing... We are not interested in dividing lines in Asia. Don't make us choose. We will refuse to choose,” she stated.
Other issues that will be discussed at the summit on which Beijing and Washington differ are the crisis in Burma, with the coup military junta quartered in power with the acquiescence of Moscow and Beijing, or the war in Ukraine.
For now, part of the bloc has refrained from openly criticizing Moscow for the invasion of its neighbor and is committed to a negotiated solution. Even so, the summit will be attended by the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, who this week signed a Treaty of Cooperation and Friendship with the bloc, and an intervention by videoconference by President Volodímir Zelenski is planned.
These pressures to take sides between the two great powers could be even more visible during the imminent G-20 summit, which will be held on the 15th and 16th in Bali (Indonesia). Yesterday it was confirmed that the leaders of the US and China will meet there in person this Monday for the first time since Biden arrived at the White House.
Issues such as the war in Ukraine stand out on the agenda of the meeting. Washington criticizes Beijing for not categorically opposing Russian aggression, and will try to unite the world leaders present around its positions. It will be a difficult task, since some of the attendees support Russia or have tried to remain neutral (India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, etc.)
The talks will also revolve around the dispute over Taiwan, which China considers an inalienable part of its territory. In his latest interventions, Biden has hinted that his country could intervene directly in favor of Taipei in the event of a war, statements that provoke Beijing's immediate anger.
Both presidents will meet to "discuss the efforts to maintain and deepen the lines of communication" between the two countries and to "work together where our interests align, especially in transnational challenges," the House Press Secretary said Thursday. White, Karine Jean-Pierre.
Xi arrives at the appointment after renewing his post for a third term and having recovered his international agenda after the stoppage of the pandemic (in recent days he has met in person with the leaders of Vietnam, Pakistan or Germany). For his part, Biden comes reinforced after avoiding a debacle for the Democrats in the mid-term elections, where they have been able to avoid the Republican “red tide”.
To close this marathon of international summits in Asian territory, Bangkok will host the summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) on the 18th and 19th. Xi is also expected to attend the meeting, which will also include US Vice President Kamala Harris.
