Catalonia will once again grow slightly more than Madrid in 2025, according to BBVA Research estimates. Specifically, the research service predicts that the GDP of the Catalan community will increase by 2.7%, one tenth more than Madrid.
It is a change compared to recent years in which - with the exception of the year of recovery from the pandemic in 2021 - Madrid has always grown more than Catalonia. This is what happened, for example, last year and predictably this 2025, always according to BBVA Research estimates.
In the report published today on growth prospects by community, analysts highlight that in 2024 they will moderate in all autonomous regions due to the recent worsening of activity in the eurozone, in addition to the fact that a part of the industry suffers from high energy costs.
“Uncertainty about economic policy could increase in the coming months,” says the financial institution's think tank in a report published today.
Now he points out that the downward revisions "impact the northern autonomous communities to a greater extent, which, although they will lead growth in 2024 and will register a positive differential with the rest of Spain, it will be less than anticipated a few months ago."
“The changes range between -0.7 percentage points in Navarra, where the automotive industry does not yet show clear symptoms of recovery, and -0.3 points in the Basque Country, where greater diversification of industrial products could soften the effects of the slowdown. in Europe,” he points out.
“Investment may be particularly affected by a high interest rate environment, a less significant than expected tractor effect from the EU's Next Generation funds and uncertainty about economic policy,” he adds.
“This translates into revisions greater than the average in the regions most dependent on public funds (Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are revised by -0.4 points).”
However, although “investment slows down, tourism could grow more than expected” due to fewer restrictions and the difficulties of competitors, so that the Balearic Islands are revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points, and the Canary Islands by 0. 2 points.
Madrid and Murcia are reviewed less than Spain, while the impact of the European slowdown on the Valencian industry and the drought in Catalonia and Andalusia justify greater reviews in these communities, always in relation to 2024.
For the following year, “a general acceleration of activity is expected due to the improvement in domestic consumption and European demand” in 2025.
