The BRICS, an acronym that encompasses five large countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) with significant weight in the global economy and which are perceived as a counterweight to the West, are holding a summit of heads of state from today until Thursday and government (the one that makes number 15) in Johannesburg. On the meeting agenda is the debate on the selection criteria for new countries in the club. An issue that has revealed the divergence of positions among the founders, their heterogeneity and contradictions.
In the South African city the faces Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Cyril Ramaphosa and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be seen. Vladimir Putin will not be there, because he is subject to an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for Russian crimes in Ukraine. It is a risk that South Africa does not want to take (the law obliges them to stop it) and it is a great frustration for the Russian, who was the one who most clearly understood the role that the group could play.
The BRICS is a concept created in 2001 by Jim O'Neill for the investment bank Goldman Sachs. The economist tried to reflect the weight of what was then known as "emerging economies" in world growth. O'Neill selected the four countries (the S for South Africa was added in a second paper) for their economic potential and size. He predicted that in the coming years, the greatest global growth would come from these economies and that, in a couple of decades, they would surpass the G7 (the Group of Seven Industrialized Countries). Many economists questioned O'Neill's paper. The idea was too new. But it was so diaphanous and anticipatory that it ended up triumphing.
But it is one thing to write a document that can be used to guide investors and quite another for someone to give the club political meaning. Vladimir Putin was the first to see the opportunity. In 2010 he invited the rest of the members to a meeting in Yekaterinburg, where the group was established as such and was already formulated as an alternative to the West. It had been two years since Putin had delivered his famous speech against NATO and US hegemony at the Munich Security Conference. At the BRICS meeting he was looking for allies and he found them. China jumped on the idea because it was thinking more and more in terms of a superpower. Lula da Silva, then in his second term, was enthusiastic about the idea. India and South Africa were more cautious. But the reality was that none of those present resented being part of a club that questioned the arrogance of the United States and its multilateral institutions.
However, since that day the BRICS have not behaved in a homogeneous way. The club is equivalent to 40% of the world's population and a quarter of its production. Economically it was always clear that China was the heavyweight of the group. India was not doing badly either, but the two countries were suspicious of each other. Russia was a petrostate, with an economy that fluctuated according to the prices of crude oil in international markets. And Brazil, and especially South Africa, entered a phase of slow growth. The war in Ukraine ended up deepening these nuances. The invasion of a neighboring country contradicted the proclamations about sovereignty with which they adorned the club's speeches. And at the same time, the BRICS became essential if Russia wanted to circumvent the imposed international sanctions (China and India have absorbed a lot of Russian oil during the conflict).
Today, one of the objectives of the BRICS is to escape from the tyranny of the dollar and its institutions. Create a common currency capable of competing with the greenback. Promote cooperation and exchange with their own currencies. But it is one thing to formulate it and quite another (and very difficult) to create an infrastructure to achieve it. At this summit there will be no talk of a common currency. It is far from being a reality. Instead, the BRICS Bank (the New Development Bank) will be discussed, which, however, is going too slowly for everyone's taste.
Interest in belonging to the BRICS has exceeded the expectations of the founders. There is talk of up to forty candidate countries to join the club. From powerful countries tired of a one-way friendship with the United States (Saudi Arabia) to internationally isolated pariahs (Iran). From members of the G-20 who want to open up to new markets (Indonesia) to powers that want visibility (Egypt). They are all looking for a space for economic cooperation that allows them to avoid the US and its multilateral institutions. More financial support. Everyone has some grievance with the first power and its European partners and the pandemic has only increased it. Everyone is calling for reforms, be it at the WTO or at the UN. But all those expectations can be disappointed. Because it is precisely this interest in joining the club that brings out the differences within it.
China is the most enthusiastic country to open the club. It needs the maximum support in its global struggle with the United States. It is also looking for new markets for exports that are faltering and its cooperation policy fits with this. Russia also wants to open the club. It is in his narrative of war against the West to get the maximum support. Brazil and South Africa are not clear about changing a status that distinguishes them in their respective continents. Lula da Silva has invited Argentina to join the club (out of personal friendship with Alberto Fernández), but her diplomacy is smart enough not to endorse a strictly anti-Western policy. The BRICS give South Africa a relevant role in a troubled continent. India, finally, is the most ambiguous country of the five. He does not pronounce himself, but the interest he has shown in holding the last meeting of the G-20, the organization he has hosted, indicates that Modi's country may be playing in another league.
The BRICS are the most serious proposal to oppose the Western monopoly on the international scene. But the difference in interests between the countries that make it up suggest that the future of this organization is not yet written.
