The signing of the Lizarra agreement or Estella pact, 25 years ago this week, consolidated the projection of a new leadership on the Abertzale left, that of Arnaldo Otegi, whose validity a quarter of a century later is now being debated. Sortu, the heir party of the old Batasuna, and EH Bildu, its strategic bet in the form of a broad front, assess the possibilities of participating in the spring Basque elections with the Abertzale leader as a candidate. The limitations of this bet are evident, with a known electoral ceiling and the burden of violence very present; However, the weight of the old nationalist guard and the leader himself can tip the balance over other options that are already being expressed among the militancy.
Bildu's decision on who will aspire to occupy Ajuria Enea is the great unknown that remains to be resolved in the short term of Basque politics, since in the ranks of the PNV they practically assume that Iñigo Urkullu will repeat as a candidate. The decision is not trivial, since one option or another will mark the electoral possibilities of the nationalist coalition, the pace at which its full democratic validation will be consolidated in the eyes of other parties and, although indirectly, the relations of this party with an eventual Government. coalition.
The debate on the candidate is carried out discreetly in Bildu. This is an issue in which, beyond the electoral calculation, variables such as self-perception, the desire for self-affirmation of some sectors and the maxim of maintaining internal cohesion influence. One of the keys to the debate has to do with the abyss that exists between how Otegi is seen in the strictest sphere of the nationalist left and how he is perceived beyond, even among potential voters that the coalition aspires to attract.
It is the disparity between those who see in Otegi the historical leader who led perestroika in the nationalist world and those, at the opposite pole, see a politician weighed down by violence, either because of his militancy in ETA, between the late 70s and the mid-70s. of the 80s, or for the role it played after the breakdown of the truce linked to Lizarra/Garazi, temporizing the attacks during especially difficult years. An aspect that is difficult to ignore even for those who recognize his role in the search for ways that lead to the end of violence.
Some voices in Bildu, even in Sortu, consider that this burden is too heavy for the electoral expectations of the nationalist coalition. They understand that with this bet they will not be able to attract voters who they did reach in the municipal elections or even in the general elections, precisely with candidates with a transversal profile. They directly propose turning the page on Otegi, 65 years old, or reserving him for the internal coordination of the coalition, and taking the confrontation with the PNV to a terrain that could make the Jeltzales uncomfortable and in which the variable of terrorism is diluted. They also point out that another candidate would facilitate post-electoral pacts.
From there, among these voices there are those who are in favor of taking the complete path towards transversality and those who propose an intermediate option. Among the latter, the name of Mertxe Aizpurua appears, a friendlier option than Otegi and which, according to an authorized source, has been heard among the militancy for months. The other option, the one that prioritizes expanding Bildu's political space, proposes doing exactly the same thing that the Abertzale coalition did in the municipal elections, with the mayors in Bilbao, Vitoria-Gasteiz or Pamplona; in his bid for the Gipuzkoa Provincial Council, with Maddalen Iriarte, candidate for lehendakari in 2020; or in the general elections, focusing the campaign on Oskar Matute. Among those who defend this path, the commitment to Rocio Vitero is recurring, a candidate who allowed them to win in Vitoria, although not govern.
Faced with these positions, there is in the commitment to Otegi a desire for reaffirmation defended by a good part of Sortu's old guard. They consider that, once his disqualification has been overcome, he deserves to close the circle by running in the elections, as long as the bases ratify it, and they relativize the importance of seeking to bypass the PNV this spring. They even point out that the goal must be the 2028 elections and, until then, sustained and cohesive growth prevails.
This medium-term reading, although surprising, was heard recurrently until a few months ago. The latest elections, however, have placed Bildu in a position that has exceeded their expectations, facing a PNV that they found weaker than they expected. The Abertzale left has found itself, sooner than expected, in the position of choosing between Otegi, the bridge with the past, and a definitive, perhaps winning, bet to close its possibilist turn.
