Alexandre Melnik (Moscow, 1958), former Soviet and then Russian diplomat in the era of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, is a professor of Geopolitics at the prestigious ICN Business School, a French grande école. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Melnik has been a regular commentator in the French media and always insists on “the moral shipwreck” of the Russian nation to which Putin has led it. The political scientist is convinced that a trial, in the style of Nuremberg (1945-1946), will be necessary for Russia to recognize its guilt, just as Germany did after Nazism. Melnik analyzed for La Vanguardia the death in prison of the opponent Alexei Navalni and its repercussions.
Do you believe that Navalni was in fact assassinated?
Yes, we must be very clear, this is a political murder. He was liquidated by the Kremlin. Putin bears full responsibility for this crime. You can see his signature. We do not know the medical circumstances and we never will, of this he can be sure. But the essential thing, I repeat, is that this is a political assassination by direct order of Vladimir Putin. And it's not the first time it's happened, as you know. This murder joins the long list of murders, such as that of the journalist Anna Politkovskaya, in 2005, incidentally on Putin's birthday, and many others.
Has Russia returned to the worst of the Stalin years?
Yes, it is a return to the Soviet past, but worse, even more cruel. I would say that Putin and Stalin share the same fight.
What is the difference between the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner militia, and that of Navalny?
Prigozhin was part of Putin's clan. At first she was almost his brain, his ideologue. Later he gained too much importance in Putin's eyes and began to overshadow him, in addition to making untimely statements, obviously. In his case it was a political execution, while that of Navalny, who was a true opponent, with a different vision of Russia, was a true murder in the spirit of the 1930s, during Stalin's time.
Why has he done it? Maybe the consequences will be negative for him?
I don't think that when you murder someone you are doing this reasoning. I have been saying for a long time that Putin is embarking on a deadly escalation. He is a serial killer who can't stop. He can only be stopped by force. It is almost paranoia, because Navalny was already away, he did not present any danger to Putin's power from a rational point of view. In my opinion, it is almost mentally ill behavior, of a man who increasingly loses his sense of reality.
With this act are you trying to convey fear to the opposition or to ordinary citizens?
He wants to instill fear in society as a whole, but he himself is afraid. He is like a boomerang of fear. Putin's strategy is based on two pillars. One is fear, also that of ordinary people, who begin to fear, as in Soviet times, that someone will knock on their door in the middle of the night and take them to the gulag. The other pillar is the lie, the lie of propaganda.
A reaction from the Russian population has been expected for a long time, but that reaction has not come. Because?
Because it is a population paralyzed by fear, fear of losing its life and reprisals, exactly as in the Stalinist era, and because it is a society lobotomized by lies. Always those two pillars: fear and lies.
And then?
We must not lose hope, because there is a generational difference. When I say that the population is afraid, it is above all people who watch television, vulnerable to propaganda, but there are more and more young people who do not watch TV, who follow social networks. The click, as I say, knows no borders. My hope is based on the awakening of these young people who understand that Putin steals their future, because they cannot travel or communicate with the rest of the world. They do not understand why and in the name of what Putin kidnaps his own future.
Will this death have consequences on the development of the war in Ukraine?
I think the murder fits more into the context of the presidential election campaign. Putin is afraid that the campaign will be disrupted. He wants to obtain at least 80% of votes, so that there is no opposition. That is why he rejected Boris Nadezhdin, who proposed ending the war, and now the death of Navalny. Later, when he will have even more free hands, he will say that he has the mandate of the people. Then he will become even more fierce. He will take advantage of that momentum and the favorable moment for Russia on the front to gain more advantage, first in the Donbass, and also protect Crimea, because the Ukrainians today make Crimea their priority objective. After the elections I see an acceleration of Russian military operations, especially because the West is slow to provide new aid and the situation in the United States is extremely worrying due to the possible arrival of Trump to power, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainians.
At Macron and Zelensky's recent press conference in Paris, the French president was tougher than ever on Russia. Does this mean that the West will react?
Yes, but it's very late. Remember when Macron said that Russia should not be humiliated. That felt very bad in Ukraine. Today he tries to position himself as the leader of Europe, but I don't know if he will achieve it, if he has the means, because the Germans are economically much stronger than the French. I believe, in fact, that we must move towards European unity because no country can resist the Russian war machine, and even then it will not be enough without American support.
