Industrialized countries that emit excessive levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) should pay developing nations as reparation or compensation for their greater degree of appropriation of the atmosphere, with the consequent climate crisis and the effects of warming. At what level should this colonization of the atmosphere by rich countries be repaired? What should that fair compensation be? How is it established? This is the task to which a team of experts has been dedicated. His conclusion is that rich nations should pay a total of $170 trillion (yes, with "b") in compensation or reparations by 2050 to ensure that climate change targets are met. It's almost 6 trillion dollars annually. It is published by Nature Sustainability in a study in which the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Autonomous University of Barcelona has participated.
To do this, the price that a ton of CO2 should cost to slow down the temperature increase by 1.5°C is used as a criterion.
The study is based on the fact that global carbon emissions and concentrations have continued to increase in recent decades and that the annual quota or carbon budget that remains to keep from exceeding the temperature increase threshold of 1.5°C (or at or well below 2 °C) are rapidly depleting.
However, not all countries are equally responsible for the depletion of carbon budgets; some nations have contributed more to causing this crisis than others.
A total of 39 developed countries have far exceeded their quota or budget for carbon emissions that would correspond to them in a hypothetical equitable distribution of this responsibility.
"This is the first system that shows that the countries historically responsible for excessive CO2 emissions have the obligation to finance compensation," says Jason Hickel, a researcher at ICTA-UAB and co-author of the study.
Financial compensation for the loss and damage suffered by countries most vulnerable to warming due to excessive CO2 emissions by other nations is becoming increasingly important in international climate change negotiations. Delegates who attended the COP27 talks in Egypt last year agreed to create a Loss and Damage Fund for countries affected by climate change. Rich nations only accept the idea of repairing the most urgent damage and in the most vulnerable areas, but they do not assume the idea of full responsibility in the integral sense of the term.
Andrew Fanning, director of the study and researcher at the University of Leeds, explained that "to avoid the worst effects of climate change, all countries must urgently stop burning fossil fuels and carry out activities that emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. But not all countries have contributed in the same way to this problem."
He added that "if we are asking nations to quickly decarbonise their economies, even if they bear no responsibility for the excess emissions that destabilize the climate, it is a matter of climate justice that they be compensated for that unfair burden."
The compensation system is based on the idea that the atmosphere is a common good, a natural resource that everyone must use equitably and avoid climate change.
To put a dollar value on the losses suffered by low-carbon countries, the researchers first obtained the most recent global carbon budgets estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The carbon budget represents the amount of carbon that could be released into the atmosphere to stay within the climate target (in this slow down the temperature by 1.5ºC)
The researchers calculated this remaining carbon budget and established a "fair share" for the 168 countries, based on population size. Likewise, in the equitable distribution of each country, they took into account the CO2 emissions accumulated historically since 1960 and the forecasts for emissions in an ambitious scenario of decarbonization from current levels to achieving a balance of zero emissions in the year 2050.
Some countries have not exceeded their quota, while others, especially the industrialized countries of the North, have already exceeded it considerably and have appropriated the share of the "atmospheric commons" that would correspond to other countries. For example, the United Kingdom has used 2.5 times its share, and the United States more than four times. India, on the other hand, has used just under a quarter of its share.
Using carbon prices from the latest IPCC scenarios, the researchers assigned a monetary value to each country's excess emissions in a sub-1.5ºC global scenario.
The total figure amounted to 192 billion dollars (within a range between 141 and 298 billion), and of this sum, 89% (170 billion) corresponded to the countries of the North while the rest were countries of the South, especially the oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Under this system, that money would be shared among low-carbon countries based on how much of the allocation they would lose.
A group of 55 low-emission countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and India, would be entitled to average compensation of $1,160 per capita per year, in a world that keeps global warming below '1.5ºC.
"Similarly, countries that would have appropriated less of their fair shares would also be entitled to less compensation. We found 13 countries that would forfeit less than 25% of their fair shares in our zero emissions scenario, including China, which would be entitled to receive $280 per capita per year, on average," Fanning says.
By Professor Jason Hickel, climate change reflects clear patterns of atmospheric colonization. "Social movements and negotiators from the global South have long argued that countries that have produced excessive emissions owe compensation or reparations for climate-related damages, which fall disproportionately on poorer countries that have contributed little or nothing to the climate." crisis," says Hickel.
"Our study focuses only on the offsets that are due for atmospheric appropriation, and this needs to be considered in addition to broader questions about transition costs, adaptation, and damage."
For Hickel, attention must also be paid to the great class inequalities within nations. The responsibility for excess emissions falls largely on the wealthy classes, who have very high consumption and wield disproportionate power over production and national politics. "It is they who must bear the costs of compensation," she concludes.
