Four years ago, the pact to oust the winner of the Barcelona municipal elections was cooked up in just 24 hours. The candidate Ernest Maragall (ERC) who on the election night of May 2019 celebrated his victory against Mayor Ada Colau, was overwhelmed the next day by the speed with which the Socialists enabled a pact with Manuel Valls to "give away" the three votes that were missing from Commons and PSC to add the 21 councilors that the mayor's office gave them.
Four years later, Maragall has achieved a bad result because he has lost half of his councilors and has no options to be mayor. But, on the other hand, he is the desired boyfriend for the survival of Jaume Collboni (PSC) and Ada Colau (BComú), because he has the key that can open the door to the mayor's office for both of them. Political curiosities, the same ones who sent him to the opposition, are now asking for his help.
On this occasion, the cooking of pacts is simmering and the surprising electoral progress announced yesterday by the president of the central government, Pedro Sánchez, has fallen like a bomb on the plans of socialists and commoners to reach an agreement that will unseat the winner again . The election call threatens to turn off the negotiations because all the parties will need to mark their own profile in the campaign that has just started.
Several political interlocutors of the parties with aspirations in Barcelona assessed yesterday the distortion that the general elections of July 23 mean for the possible pacts. In particular, it hinders the agreement longed for by Collboni and Colau with Maragall. ERC is licking its wounds from the stumble in Sunday's local elections and is looking for ways to rebuild its strategy to regain the lost electorate. In this context, it would be counterproductive to facilitate the mayorship to a socialist with republican votes.
Perhaps, because of all this, both the ERC leader, Oriol Junqueras, and Ernest Maragall distanced themselves yesterday from the siren songs of the socialists, with whom they maintain a bad relationship, and made it clear that their first option is to negotiate with the winner of the elections, Xavier Trias. In fact, the first contacts between Trias and Maragall took place on the same election night and continued yesterday. The ex-mayor has asked his people for patience and freedom to start weaving possible alliances to support him in the investiture, or to prevent pacts against him from being concretized. In this sense, the winner of the elections in Barcelona has also called Collboni to start talks, despite the fact that the socialists have drawn the image of Trias between the president and general secretary of JxCat, Laura Borràs and Jordi Turull, on election night to point out the ex-convergent candidate as the new spearhead of independence. Although the former mayor has hidden the initials of his party during the campaign to prevent his proposal for the city from drifting around the process again.
What can Trias offer Collboni in exchange for deactivating his attempt to unseat him? A possible letter would be the presidency of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (AMB), which manages one of the largest public budgets in Catalonia and which until now has always been held by the mayor of Barcelona. It can also offer mutual support to municipalities where JxCat and PSC compete for mayorships.
Nevertheless, Trias is aware of the powerful counterparts that the PSC can offer ERC in exchange for making Collboni mayor of Barcelona. The price for this support would include stability in Parliament, which would prevent a fall of the Republican government alone and, therefore, an electoral advance, to quotas of power in the powerful provincial councils, passing through support in some town councils where ERC has been weakened. The offer is sweet, but the consequences of accepting it are very dangerous in the short and medium term for the Republicans. The strategy drawn up by Junqueras is to restore the independenceist unity broken after the departure of Junts per Catalunya from the Government and from which the ex-convergents have made the most of it.
With all this context, Xavier Trias today has a better chance of being appointed mayor of Barcelona on June 17, the day of the constitution of the Consistory, even if he is in the minority. The electoral law indicates that if no one is able to add the absolute majority of 21 councilors, the candidate from the list with the most votes is automatically proclaimed mayor.
For their part, the commons have decided to remain in the background of the negotiations and are well aware that this time they will play a secondary role. In this sense, Ada Colau will cease to be mayor of Barcelona, whether mayor of Trias or Collboni, if the current more than difficult left-wing pact prospers. Colau has not revealed his political future and is waiting for the final vote count, which will be known on Friday. This scrutiny is very important because of the short lead of 141 votes that the PSC obtained over BComú. Whoever remains first of the two will emerge as the leader of the progressive forces and can demand the mayorship. In the event that the scrutiny keeps the Socialists in front, the exit of Colau from the Consistory seems very likely to promote the candidacy of Sumar, who will lead Yolanda Díaz in the general elections in July and which will serve to reconcile the fragmentation of the space United We Can politician.
Finally, Daniel Sirera (PP), who has four councilors and who aspired to have the key to the mayor's office, offers to guarantee governance with Trias or Collboni, although he demands that the latter not agree with Colau . The negotiations are still underway.
