When on the night of 28M the ballot in the city of Valencia -which is carried out first than the regional one- reaches a reasonable percentage, it will already be possible to see who is the next president of the Generalitat Valenciana. Although a victory for the right in the city and the left in the region as a whole could be plausible, there has never been a scenario of the PP reaching the autonomous government having lost the cap i casal that same night.
Six days before the elections, no one dares to consider the city won or lost because equality is maximum. With serenity, the current mayor Joan Ribó (Compromís), recalls that, neither in 2015 nor in 2019, the sum of the left has not exceeded the sum of the right by more than one councilor; an arithmetic that aspires to repeat for the third time. In the last clash at the local polls, PP, Ciudadanos and Vox surpassed the sum of Compromís and PSPV by just over 6,000 votes. However, the electoral system, which favors the most voted, made possible the reissue of the Government of the Rialto.
In this scenario of a technical draw, this final sprint of the campaign is expected to be key. According to the CIS pre-election survey, 25.5% decide the direction of their vote in the last week (19.3%), on the day of reflection (4.4%) and even on the day of the elections (2 ,2%).
In this sense, the same survey by the institute led by José Félix Tezanos points out that, when asked what they will vote in the municipal elections, 20% of the 2019 socialist electorate still does not know what they will do with their ballot. On the other hand, among PP voters, the number of undecided drops to 11.8%. Both Partido Popular and Compromís have the highest loyalty figures with 70.1% and 69.9%, respectively. Thus, the popular voter seems to be the most mobilized of all, since almost 92% assure that "they will certainly go to vote" this Sunday.
Last Sunday, before the final rush began, PP and Compromís gave themselves an injection of vitamins with their central campaign events. In both it was clear that nothing has been decided and while the popular ones called for the useful vote and to concentrate the conservative vote, Compromís appealed for mobilization. After a few months of certain doubts, it seems that the campaign is doing well for the Valencian supporters, as well as for the Socialists who believe that their candidate has achieved prominence with her proposals and the debates have projected her as an alternative.
In this context, all the polls (except the CIS) indicate that the PP candidate, Maria José Catalá, will be the most voted; it is less clear that the left does not reach an absolute majority. Catalá, according to CIS data, attracts more than half of the former Ciudadanos voters (her party partner of hers, Carlos Mazón, was left with four out of 10).
All in all, the evaluation of Ribó's management of the last year assumes outstanding approval quotas: 53.6% consider it "good" or "very good", while 40.5% describe it as "bad" or "very bad". ” . When asked about the overall degree of satisfaction with the municipal services provided by the City Council, the score is 5.6 on a scale from 0 (not at all satisfied) to 10 (very satisfied).
Yes, it is striking that, unlike Ximo Puig, Ribó is not the most valued of the candidates. And it is that as they admit in the Compromís itself, contrary to what happened in 2019, the figure of the mayor generates a lot of sympathy but also animosity. Thus, he is the candidate who receives the most “very bad” ratings, but also the one who obtains the most “very good” when asked to rate the different candidates for Mayor. Data that give clues but do not allow a clear forecast to be made.
