The 28th conference of the UN Climate Change Convention that opens today in Dubai (United Arab Emirates) is conditioned by the absence of the President of the United States, Joe Biden, and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, despite that he is expecting a message from Xuexiang Ding, his deputy prime minister. In addition, the rarefied atmosphere created around the election as the seat of the United Arab Emirates and the avalanche of previous reports on the insufficient response to climate action frame the summit. The top leaders of India or Russia will not attend the conference - the sessions will end on December 12 - but King Charles III of England will participate in the opening, whose speech is highly anticipated. In total, there will be 70,000 delegates (1,600 from Brazil) from almost 200 countries.
This Friday and Saturday, the speeches of around 145 heads of state and government are expected. The Spanish President, Pedro Sánchez, will speak tomorrow, after the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and before the British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. Lula da Silva (Brazil), Ursula von der Leyen (European Commission) and Charles Michel (European Council) will speak on Friday. And Saturday, Emmanuel Macron (France), Giorgia Meloni (Italy) and Fumio Kishida (Japan). The first week will have a more technical nature, while the second will include a ministerial section in which the texts of the agreement will be outlined.
Meanwhile, the president of the conference, Ahmed al Jabir, remains at the center of the hurricane after reports from the BBC, in which he assured that he was considering using the summit to forge agreements on oil and gas for his own benefit. Al-Jabir, who is president of the state-owned oil giant of the United Arab Emirates (Adenoc), strongly denied the accusations yesterday and described them as "an attempt to undermine the work of the COP28 presidency". "These accusations are false, false, incorrect and inaccurate," Al-Jabir said. "I promise you that I have never seen these talking points that you refer to and that I have never used them in my discussions."
The aim of the negotiations is to prevent warming from exceeding 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, which is why it is key to curb the gases that heat the planet. However, the planet is far from this goal, because the expansion of fossil fuels has continued.
The meeting is preceded by a UN report in which it is warned that the current climate commitments of the countries are leading the world to a warming of between 2.5ºC and 2.9ºC, due to the unstoppable increase in gas emissions, mainly produced by the burning of fossil energy (coal, gas and oil).
Stopping warming at 1.5º C (to prevent the most catastrophic effects of climate change) means having to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 (compared to 2019). However, governments foresee an increase in fossil fuel extraction by 2030 that doubles the amount that would be consistent with the 1.5°C goal.
One of the key negotiations concerns the launch of the fund to repair the losses and damages that will be caused by climate ravages in the poorest nations, exposed and vulnerable to climate change.
Throughout this year, a transition committee has been studying who governs this fund, what resources it will have and which countries should finance it. The idea that the new fund will be hosted by the World Bank is making way and it is encouraged that new emerging economies and nations enriched by oil also contribute. Possible sources of new funding include extraordinary taxes on oil and gas profits, taxes on shipping and levies on frequent flyers.
Debates will also be heated about whether to start planning for the decline of fossil fuels as the agreement to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 paves the way.
Governments do not have to submit new climate action plans to the secretariat of the UN Climate Change Convention this year. However, it is the first time since the Paris Agreement (2015), that there will be an official global assessment of the progress (or setbacks) that have been achieved. This document (Global Stocktake, in the slang) is drawn up every five years. We know the answer: not enough progress is being made in reducing emissions. But the review of this balance is presented as a lever or opportunity to respond to the detected shortcomings and relaunch action before countries present new national climate action contributions in 2025.
