The United States has become a country dominated, at least on the right, if we look at the preferences of Republican voters in the run-up to the 2024 presidential primaries. In polls, the degree of support for the various party candidates it is directly proportional to the political aggressiveness and catastrophism of each of them: the more furor, the more support.
Former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the most incendiary and dark in the country's vision, are the only ones with double-digit percentages (over 50% and 20%, respectively). Both have a long way ahead of the rest of the aspirants; particularly those projecting more optimistic messages, with ex-ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley and black senator Tim Scott as the main leaders of hope for the future of the nation.
"Scott's whole personality and approach runs counter to what's dominant in the Republican Party today," political consultant Liz Mair, formerly a conservative political strategist and head of online communications for the Republican National Committee, told The New York Times. 2008. “He's a very positive and cheerful guy, which you don't see much today in either game. Scott is also intelligent and a powerful communicator." But...
But Scott, praised by the media on both sides as a "good guy", friendly and sympathetic from his strongly conservative speech; senator in South Carolina proud of humble family origins, of a grandfather who had to leave school to work picking cotton and a single mother who pushed him forward; Scott, 57, who everyone seems to love and who has been given $22 million by Wall Street businessmen and Republican donors to finance the candidacy, is anchored between 1% and 2% of the projected vote. “The United States is great; the land of opportunities! My family's history proves it: from cotton to Congress!", he quips. But nothing It doesn't move.
Something similar happens to Nikki Haley. At 51, with a classy resume after representing the country at the United Nations in 2017 and 2018 and serving as governor of South Carolina for the previous six years, the former diplomat is barely above a 4 % with your message of confidence in the future. And the presentation as "proud daughter of Indian immigrants" doesn't seem to work either.
“Haley should be an interesting candidate: daughter of immigrants, former governor of a state with large population changes, UN ambassador...but she lacks a real basis to run for office: she is not populist and she's not a culture warrior either," says analyst Jane Coaston, who specializes in conservatives in the United States.
The commander-in-chief of the culture wars to which Coaston alludes is undoubtedly DeSantis, who last night chose a "Twitter space" together with the social network's new owner, tycoon Elon Musk, to announce officially the candidacy. A postulation preceded by an impressive legislative deployment against trans people and sex change, abortion, education about gender and racism, the employment of undocumented immigrants... It is necessary to pursue - defense - a lot of causes progress or the woke agenda inherited from the "awakening" movement against racism and inequality in the 1930s.
DeSantis does seem capable of giving battle to Trump, especially if he were ultimately weakened by the court cases against him. But at the moment this is not the case, and the former president prevails in all vote estimates. “We're headed for World War III if we don't move a little faster! The dollar collapses! Immigrants are invading us! Biden is a traitor and the Democrats, fascists of the left!”, the ultra leader repeats at every rally. And all this does seem to sell in the republican parish. Does it really matter that the proponent is a sex offender accused of bribery and under investigation for trying to rig the election he lost, among other things? For now, not much. In the right of the United States, and today, the crime does not punish. And business is on the rise.