The two legislatures that the Navarrese right in the opposition chains have led to a fratricidal war whose ultimate consequences are yet to be seen. The breakdown of the Navarra Suma coalition, which united UPN, PP and Ciudadanos under the same brand, is favoring a stark confrontation between regionalists and popular ones, with a trickle of changes of acronyms in favor of those of Alberto Núñez Feijóo that irritates his once allies. This division does not favor the already slim chances of the right to regain power in Navarra on May 28 and, in fact, could have as a more visible consequence the loss of the baton of command in Pamplona in favor of EH Bildu, who already governed the capital of Navarra until four years ago.
The last chapter of the battle between UPN and PP came a few days ago, when two relevant regionalist councilors announced their move to popular ranks. These councilors will accompany the popular candidate in Pamplona on the list, who is none other than Carlos GarcÃa Adanero, a historic UPN party who left the party as a result of the nonsense surrounding the vote on the labor reform in February of last year.
Adanero will now compete with the UPN candidate, Cristina Ibarrola, for the conservative vote in Pamplona, ​​with the circumstance that the pull of the now popular candidate may become a factor that favors Bildu, the second force in the city. One more paradox of the intricate and polarized politics of Navarre, which is witnessing a war between fellow militants for decades. The Navarrese PP, to make matters worse, has been boasting of having attracted a hundred militants from other parties, the majority from UPN.
To understand the monumental mess of the right in Navarra, it is necessary to attend to the complex regional political board, divided into three large blocks. First, the right represents just over a third of the votes (36.5% in 2019). Secondly, the progressive Basques (Geroa Bai) and the pro-independence left (Bildu) are divided almost equally, a space that represents a third of the votes (32% in 2019). Finally, the left represented by the PSN and the groups to its left, which will run as Contigo/Zurekin Nafarroa, have been adding around 30% of the votes.
Consequently, in order to govern, understanding between blocks is necessary. UPN ruled for more than two decades with the acquiescence or even the support of the PSN. This dynamic was broken when the Basque Uxue Barkos achieved the support of a part of that third block in 2015, that of the parties to the left of the PSN. Since 2019, the socialist MarÃa Chivite, who overtook Geroa Bai as the second force, has governed thanks to the understanding between the second and third blocks.
The problem of the right is that it cannot reach an understanding with any party beyond its own block, which in May will compete with four brands: UPN, PP, Vox and Cs. Situated in front of this devilish political chessboard, the leader of the regionalists, Javier Esparza, tried a year ago to move the pieces with a move that would ultimately lead to the current war. He sought to get closer to the Navarrese socialists via Madrid, offering the PSOE the support of his deputies for the labor reform.
What happened from there is known. The two regionalist deputies, Adanero and Sergio Sayas, disobeyed the voting discipline, although it was useless, after the error of the popular Alberto Casero in the vote. The internal cohesion within the UPN, very weak after the trauma of the loss of power in 2015, was blown up. In December, Esparza broke the Navarra Suma formula, hoping that UPN alone could have the option of seducing the PSN. It’s unlikely. given that the socialists hit rock bottom due to their rapprochement with UPN, but more plausible than a majority resulting from the sum of the rights.
The polls, all published, show that MarÃa Chivite will have the possibility of continuing to govern and, likewise, they place her ahead of Uxue Barkos, which would ensure that it would be the socialist who would lead a progressive government. Meanwhile, there are many who in UPN are already psyched up for four more years of traveling in the desert, too long for a party that came to control even the last spring of power in the community. A compromised situation for the regionalists that is aggravated by the firm commitment of the PP to fish in a common fishing ground.
The popular ones are not satisfied with being the crutch of UPN and have managed to attract weighty ex-regionalist militants. They have smelled blood and they are not going to stop. The objective is to transfer the idea that the PP is the rising party of the right in the community. If successful, the strategy could prove devastating for UPN. The polls will say if he becomes the final straw for Esparza or if he holds his own.