Emmanuel Macron multiplied the meetings yesterday in search of a way out of the serious political and social crisis triggered by the approval by decree of the controversial pension reform. The French president urgently needs to calm the street, where an explosive climate reigns, and resume the initiative to prevent the rest of his mandate - until May 2027 - from being four years of tension and sterile paralysis.
From the meetings held with his political allies, with several key ministers and with the parliamentary group of his party, Renaixement, the only thing that transpired was that the head of state does not plan to take drastic measures, at least for the time being. "No dissolution (of the National Assembly), no remodeling (of the Government), no referendum", said one of the participants. Today we have to know more, from the mouth of Macron himself. He has decided to be interviewed on the 1 p.m. TV news. It's an unusual schedule for him. It has the advantage that among the audience, of a high average age, the percentage of its voters is greater. A message at noon allows for prolonged media impact.
Macron does not consider that the defeat of the motion of censure by only nine votes, on Monday, is a failure of the Government. But this is how it has been interpreted, because it highlights the weakness and isolation of the Elysee. Under these conditions, it will be very difficult to carry out any new transformation project, either in the field of institutions or in that of migration laws. The president would need stable allies. They can only be the Republicans (LR, traditional right), but they are very divided, on the verge of splitting. Almost a third of them voted in favor of the censure motion, against the order given by the party leadership.
Nor is it easy for Macron to hold his own troops together. Renaissance deputies and allied groups face disaffected voters; they have suffered harassment and intimidation. And the worst thing is that the pension reform did not come to a vote and was approved thanks to a completely legal constitutional exception procedure that was often used before but that this time, given the circumstances, removed democratic legitimacy to reform
A failed second term for Macron would create a favorable scenario for the growth of the extreme right. Already since the president was re-elected and especially since his supporters were in the minority in the National Assembly, there is talk in Paris of the fear of Macron and his collaborators to pave the way for a triumph of Marine Le Pen in 2027. It's a long-term concern, but it's real. Macron would not for the world want his legacy to be tarnished for having indirectly opened the door to power to the extreme right. The example of Barack Obama in the United States. His eight years in the White House led to the triumph of Donald Trump. That precedent is worrying.
There is no indication that calm will return quickly to a historically explosive country with an unstoppable tendency towards periodic street riots. The last few nights have been violent in many cities, with burning garbage barricades and clashes with riot police. The students, so far not very active, have participated in the demonstrations called at the last moment. Sociologist Michel Wieviorka has said that "a May 68 in reverse" could be in the making; that is, a revolt started by the unions and then seconded by the students, the opposite of what happened 55 years ago.
Unions keep up the pressure with blockades of public roads and refineries, selective power cuts and other actions. Paris scavengers decided to extend their strike until next Monday. Although minimal services have been activated by force, they are insufficient to bring down the mountains of accumulated waste. Another day of national struggle has been called for tomorrow which will affect transport. Macron will address the country a few hours earlier. It is doubtful that his words will demobilize people.
