Possessing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier capable of carrying atomic weapons is still an attribute of great power on the world board. France longs to remain so, despite the internal weaknesses that the current political and social crisis over the pension reform has highlighted.
Over the next few years, Paris will make a considerable financial effort to increase its defense spending. It is no longer just a question of grandeur, of maintaining a status that has been imposed on itself as a country, but of responding to the new geopolitical reality that has been created with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
One of the most illustrative symbols of French military power will be the construction of a new aircraft carrier that will replace the current Charles de Gaulle. It will take about 15 years until the ship is operational, but it is such a large-scale project that preparations and budget forecasting are already starting. Its cost is estimated at 10,000 million euros.
According to the Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, the future aircraft carrier will be "a cathedral of technology and human qualities". In a recent interview with Le Parisien, Lecornu recalled that only the Americans and the French are in a position to build aircraft carriers powered by nuclear mini-reactors.
According to plans today, work on the new aircraft carrier will begin in late 2025 or early 2026. Sea trials will take place in 2036 and 2037.
The French Government considers it necessary to have an aircraft carrier of these characteristics so that the country continues to be respected and does not depend on anyone. Another factor that justifies this naval projection are the overseas departments and territories spread across the planet, from French Guiana, to South America, to the archipelagos of Mayotte and Reunion, to the Indian Ocean, or New Caledonia and Polynesia French, in the Pacific. Guaranteeing French sovereignty over such vast areas requires a deterrent military presence. France also has more than 11 million square kilometers of exclusive economic zones in the seas and oceans, the second country in the world after the United States with the most maritime area to control.
The aircraft carrier is only a small, albeit very showy, part of the investments. The roadmap for French defense is contained in the Military Programming law (LPM) for the period 2024-2030, just approved by the Council of Ministers and already in the parliamentary process. The expenditure will be 413,000 million euros in six years, figures never seen before. Despite the corrective effect of inflation, this is remarkable growth. As for 2017, the year in which President Emmanuel Macron arrived at the Elysée, with a defense expenditure of 32,000 million euros, in 2030 it will reach 69,000 million, more than double.
Since the days of General De Gaulle, France has always aspired to strategic autonomy and to act as a "balancing power" on the international scene. NATO membership is not incompatible with this attitude, although it has sometimes caused tensions. Paris asserts its status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, which gives it the right to veto, and is the only country in the European Union with its own nuclear arsenal. These factors allow it, in theory, to hold a one-on-one dialogue with an ally like the United States or with Russia and China.
The increase in defense spending when savings are decreed in other areas - for example, in the pension system - is controversial, even more so when the radical left has a very large and noisy parliamentary group. It's the old cannons or butter dilemma. Lecornu has moved ahead of the criticism and the populist temptation of his adversaries. For the minister, "it is absurd to oppose our collective security to our social model", and he recalled that social spending in France represents 30% of GDP while what is devoted to defense is only 1.9 % (it will reach 2% in 2025).
Paradoxical as it may seem, the 2024-2030 Military Programming law has received criticism from conservative deputies and the press because, in an exercise of priorities, and despite budget growth, it includes sacrifices in some areas. The renewal of material and new acquisitions will be delayed in some cases or their volume will be reduced. The Earth Army will have fewer armored Griffons and Jaguars than it wanted. The same will happen with the Navy, which will have fewer frigates. The Air Force will have to make do with fewer Rafale fighter-bombers and A400M transport planes.
The war in Ukraine has shown the shortcomings of all European armies, including the French one, after many years of insufficient investments due to the -erroneous- belief that there was no serious threat in Europe. Among military experts and former senior commanders who express themselves in the media, there is a general opinion that France would be unable to withstand a high-intensity conventional war like the one in Ukraine for several months. It lacks basic items such as tanks and ammo. Not even the investment in the coming years will help to solve the deficit, although the situation is expected to improve.
Some very sensitive aspects of military planning and budgeting are kept secret, especially those concerning nuclear weapons. Yes, it is public knowledge that the new aircraft carrier will be designed to be able to carry Rafale fighter-bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons. They are the so-called Strategic Air Forces. The other component of the French nuclear deterrent is the Strategic Ocean Force, made up of four submarines that each carry 16 intercontinental missiles with various nuclear warheads. One of which will always be on patrol.
For the next few years, investment in ammunition for artillery, anti-aircraft defense, drones, cutting-edge technologies, cyber defense and space defense will be vital, in addition to almost 50,000 million in the maintenance and tuning of material already available so that it is operational in the event of crisis
The French military and industrial complex generates considerable economic activity and employs some 200,000 people who work in 26,000 companies, some of which are small in size, that have been awarded contracts. Rearmament, therefore, is not only seen as a national security imperative and of geopolitical weight but as a dynamizing factor in a very relevant sector of the French economy and its export potential.
