Catalonia has quietly become independent during the campaign. Oblivious to the resurrection of ETA, the pots of Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the buying of votes and the kidnappings... Barcelona is one of the jewels in the crown of 28-M, but, regardless of whether Pedro Sánchez can add it to his credit , undecided or angry will turn the result in the capital into the spigot to increase the temperature in the struggle of the PSC against the independentistas.
And with the hangover of the numbers, go for the second round! That of the pacts that will blow up red lines drawn five years ago, will break clichés and typical discourses. The new local map will serve to analyze the state of health of the PSC, ERC and Junts on the way to the Catalan elections after passing through the general and European elections, keys for Carles Puigdemont. The December result can twist the strategies, especially of the Socialists and Republicans if the PP prevails. The strength of the municipal foundations of each party will be key to issuing new recipes.
CKD. Pere Aragonès does not want to hear about the revalidation of the Government. The Republicans reached their highest levels of power two years ago – reinforced with the departure of Junts – and on Monday they will have more councilors and votes in the metropolitan area than ever before. But it will be difficult to avoid stains on the municipal file. The reissue of Ernest Maragall's victory in Barcelona is far away, another thing is if he participates in some combination of government, although he has declared his incompatibility –almost epidermal– with the PSC and Jaume Collboni. The Republicans have tried to isolate the Barcelona campaign from the rest, where the revival of socio-vergence is suspected in the regions of Central Catalonia, Penedès or Tarragona. ERC raised the municipal ones as a hand in hand with the PSC but the voting border is non-existent while the transfer with Junts is maintained. Will there be bonuses for the management of the Government? According to the PSC and Junts, no. And wear?
psc. Salvador Illa is a long-distance runner who links campaigns and slogans. From "confrontation to collaboration" in his move from the Ministry of Health to the Parliament; and now, "bury the culture of complaints" of the Government. The Catalan differential fact makes the PSC gobble up Ciudadanos in the metropolitan area – the PP does it in the rest of Spain – with which it can reinforce its majorities and recover provincial capitals such as Tarragona and Lleida, which ERC won in 2019. There the normalization of relations with Junts is key, erasing the independence veto by 155. Collboni could win Barcelona or prop up Colau again. Are there alternatives? Reaching the generals at the hands of Junts is a risk with Puigdemont in Brussels, and if Sánchez falls, it will be necessary to see if Illa's aura is enough to turn Catalonia into a PSOE fortress.
Together. The post-convergents have waited in vain for the Electoral Board to announce the disqualification of Laura Borràs. With the problems around its president to be resolved, the result of 28-M will be a barometer of the dispute between families. In Barcelona, Xavier Trias boasts of a free hand, forgetting about independence and opening up to unusual pacts. In the rest of the municipalities, "municipal autonomy will be respected", which opens the door to reproducing agreements that in 2019 were opposed by Puigdemont, such as that of the Barcelona Provincial Council. That will be the new workhorse. The departure of the Government is intended to alleviate with local power. If the pragmatic bet does not work at the polls, Jordi Turull's project will suffer the consequences of decapitalization. The campaign has been a test bed for possible candidates for the Generalitat, with Josep Rull and Jaume Giró accumulating kilometers and rallies. No one will apply publicly in advance, "it would be suicide", but the race is on.
And Ada Colau... The BComú candidate has had a short campaign with Yolanda Díaz as the striker. She has mobilized her loyal electorate against anticolauism and her future will be at the expense of the pacts. If she is not mayor, she can console herself with Díaz or, from her superblocks, who knows if with a UN agency.