The apparent equality of forces with which the mayoral candidates are facing the last six days of the electoral campaign and, consequently, the serious difficulties of the demographic studies to determine the winner of next Sunday's elections make it possible to predict that Barcelona will will have to submit, from the night of the 28th and until the eve of the constitution of the new councils on June 17th, to a second round to determine who will govern the city for the next four years.
The decisive round will not be decided at the polls, but at the offices, and not just by programmatic coincidences, the huge piece of cliché that flows these days in the mouths of some candidates who know that to be honest and reveal to early hour his plans for the next day would be tantamount to shooting himself in the foot, if not directly in the head. This second round will also involve party interests that sometimes escape local dynamics. What is at stake now, in the final week of the campaign, is to reach the negotiation to set up a government majority - or, failing that, to add the 21 votes that guarantee the mayor's prize - in the best possible position
The unpredictability of the forecast is proportional to the predictability of the campaign. As the latter has progressed, the few new features of programs that began to be explained many months ago have appeared. The fear of making a mistake has outweighed the risky bets. In this sense, Ada Colau's campaign is being the best example of a prudent campaign.
The leader of BComú has been content to announce proposals that give continuity to the work of government that the entire fleet of anti-Colau vote fishermen is trying to bring to a plebiscite. More supervillas and more services, now with a municipal perspective that, should it make its way in the political and legal spheres, the same obstacles await it as the dentist, the funeral home, the energy company or the alleged municipalization of the water
As the countdown to the elections progresses, this announced polarization so feared by the other candidates between Ada Colau and Xavier Trias - reincarnated as the nemesis of the mayoress who eight years ago sent him to the opposition - is it has been partially diluted.
The polls that put Jaume Collboni in charge have provoked the reaction of his opponents. From all against Colau, it has turned into a crossfire in which the image of the socialist candidate appears in the target of a target with two darts pointing directly at the center. One, the eternal precariousness of the Rodalies service, which the socialists try to avoid with the argument of the ongoing millionaire investments. The other, the memory of his time in the municipal government, which allows his rivals to point to him as co-responsible for the policies promoted by Ada Colau and to blame the mayoress, precisely, for denying part of this shared work
That Collboni has enough numbers to be at the front of the starting line in this second round that will begin next Sunday night is not only shown by the growing attention that the other candidates are devoting to him, but also by the full dedication of the PSC and the PSOE in the battle of Barcelona, the outcome of which will largely determine the degree of success or failure of the Catalan and Spanish socialists in these municipal and regional elections. The choice of the Catalan capital as the final stage of the campaign for the president of the central government, a Pedro Sánchez disguised these weeks as the generous king of the Orient of politics that goes handing out gifts at each meeting or at the end of each Council of Ministers. Collboni has the best weapon for the definitive assault on the Barcelona mayor's office at the right time for the socialist brand in Catalonia and he has not hesitated to use it.
In a campaign in which, as it was written, there is a lot of talk about mobility, tourism, housing and security, and in which the problems of Rodalies and occupations have crept in, very rarely has there been space for the historical memory of the process. Xavier Trias has not given him this space, knowing that waving the flag with more enthusiasm and vigor than would be advisable would alienate thousands of voters who trust him to evict Ada Colau from the city government, but who would get off the wagon in the first independence revolt It is being attempted by Jaume Collboni, a direct competitor of the Junts candidate for the favors of a part of the electorate that hesitates when it comes to choosing one side or the other of socio-vergence.
In this fight that for a few months seems to be reserved for three candidates, ERC refuses to be excluded. The Republicans are trying to combat the logical discouragement caused by the polls, unfavorable for them since at the end of last year Xavier Trias broke into the Barcelona electoral scene, with a campaign with a strong presence of the leaders of the Left, Oriol Junqueras and President Pere Aragonès. Like Jaume Collboni and unlike Xavier Trias, Ernest Maragall has never covered the mark. Nor has Ada Colau covered it, although in her case it is clear that she is the mark of the commons.