The world seems headed for a new partition into two blocs, as in the cold war. On the one hand, we find liberal democracies with the rule of law, separation of powers and free markets. Although we represent 60% of world GDP, we constitute only 15% of the population. The lucky members of this group include EU countries, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada. Since 1945, the United States has led this bloc thanks to technological, cultural and military primacy.

At the other extreme, countries that represent around 55% of the population, but only 30% of world GDP, forge alliances. The group includes the five Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which next year will include Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, the Emirates and Ethiopia. Unlike the countries of the USSR during the Cold War, this bloc does not share the same political system and is marked by enormous geographical, cultural and religious distances. The main link, with nuances, is a feeling of revenge against the West. Although the goals of these countries are far from homogeneous, part of their strategy moves discreetly from Beijing and, in some respects, from Moscow.

In the Cold War, the aim of the two blocs was to expand the sphere of influence through ideological offensive, trade, technology, nuclear deterrence and, on occasion, armed conflict. In this new version of the anti-Western blog we see similar patterns. China has expanded its influence for years in countries with natural resources in Africa, Asia and Latin America through state-led trade policies, and has now reinforced this strategy with considerable military spending that threatens stability in the China Sea. Russia, for its part, bases its influence on military capability, as is being seen in Ukraine, Syria and Armenia, as well as on its disinformation campaigns in Western democracies.

Unlike the Soviet era, this blog does not try to impose an ideology. After the collapse of communism and its miseries, most of these countries, many of them autocracies, have built their societies around a strong nationalist feeling of patriotic exaltation that is difficult to export.

Although this new separation of blocs will not be as sharp as before due to deep global economic interconnection, the world is moving down an uncertain path.

One way to avoid a new cold war may lie in breaking the bloc dynamic. In the Middle East, this strategy includes the Abraham agreements (of Israel with the Emirates, Morocco and Bahrain) and, above all, the agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia that should be signed in the coming months.

With the war in Palestine, Hamas has inflamed the tensions of the Arab world and deepened its division. The possible beneficiaries are Iran and Russia. The first because it predisposes the Arab countries against Israel and makes it difficult to reach an agreement with Arabia, its great rival. Russia gets the US to focus on a new war focus beyond Ukraine.

In this context, preserving peace and Western achievements since the Enlightenment, including individual freedom, requires a very realistic approach and a shared strategy. The West must promote, without complexities, rules that ensure a future in which the search for understanding always prevails over conflict.