This advantage was calculated using a formula to detect possible gerrymandering and allowed Republicans to hold ten-year-long majority in certain congressional delegations or statehouses, even though Democrats in those states won top of-the-ticket races to the presidency or statewide office. The result is that Republicans won more seats in the Senate than was expected, based on their percentage of votes.
Starting Thursday, the U.S. Census Bureau will release 2020 population data. This will launch the next round in the once-a decade redistricting process. The new districts will be in effect in most states beginning with the 2022 elections. If the maps are not challenged by the courts, they will remain in place until the 2030 elections.
Redistricting is a complicated process that can appear arbitrary, but it has major implications for public policy. Republicans who have benefited from favorable congressional districts in the past decade have used their influence in state capitols for tax cuts, restrictions on abortion, and to limit union bargaining rights.
Redistricting in Congress has created fewer competitive seats for Democrats and Republicans, which means that there is less incentive to compromise, as politicians appeal more to the left and right. Redistricting this year could decide the fate of President Joe Biden’s plan to increase national voting rights and spend more money on social programs. Republicans will need to win just five seats in order to control the U.S. House from Democrats.
As they did 10 years ago Republicans will be able to win over Democrats. Redistricting will be controlled by the GOP in Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. These are the three states that have gained seats in the U.S. House. Independent commissions will draw maps for Colorado and Montana. Each of these states will gain a seat. Oregon is also adding a seat. However, the majority of Democrats in the House have agreed that they will share the redistricting process control with Republicans.
Recent redistricting reforms could make it more difficult for Republicans in certain states to keep their advantage. However, in this era of increasing political polarization, it could be more difficult for Republicans to maintain their advantage in certain states. Chris Warshaw, a George Washington University political scientist who analyses election data, said that the past decade has shown that it is "really difficult for one party win when the other party designed the maps".
To calculate the size of partisan advantage in U.S. House elections and state House and Assembly contests in 2016, 2018, and 2020, the AP used a mathematical formula known as the "efficiency gap".
This formula determines which parties are more successful at winning votes. This formula can indicate partisan gerrymandering, which is when a party maximises its chances of winning by drawing maps that distribute voters to the other party in multiple districts or packs large numbers of political opponents into one district. This formula can also reveal natural redistricting benefits that occur when likeminded voters crowd together, such the advantage that New York Republicans have when Democrats cluster closely in New York City.
The AP compared their findings with data compiled in 1970 by Warshaw, using a similar formula to track hundreds of state and federal legislative elections.
As would be expected given changing demographics and shifting voter preferences, the analysis revealed that Republicans had a lower advantage in the first decade of the decade. The analysis showed that the Republican advantage lasted longer than the other party's in many states.
From 2012 to 2020, Republicans from Florida, New York and North Carolina, Ohio South Carolina, South Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas won approximately one more U.S. House seat based on their average district vote share. The redistricting process in all of these states was controlled by Republicans, except New York where the courts drawn the map after the 2010 census. This was because the Democratic-led Assembly failed to agree with the Republican-led Senate.
Democrats enjoyed a similar one seat congressional advantage in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and had more control over the redistricting process.
According to Warshaw's data, eight states had a decade-long partisan tilt, with about one seat in Congress between 2012 and 2020 -- equaling the total of 1972-2010.
The data for state House and Assembly elections in the past decade showed an approximately one-quarter percent rise in states favoring the same party. These were almost all Republican advantages, in contrast to 1980s when Democrats had a greater advantage in more states.
The Republican-controlled swing states of Florida, North Carolina and Ohio showed a persistent Republican tilt in both their congressional and state House districts.
Ohio's Republicans won 12 of 16 U.S. House Districts in every election since the last redistricting. They took 75% of the seats, despite never receiving more than 58% from the total votes.
"We have some the most rigged areas in the country," Luke Feeney (a Democrat and mayor of Chillicothe in south-central Ohio), stated during an online forum about redistricting last week.
Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman is a Republican. He said that new redistricting criteria, which limit the splitting of counties, should end oddly shaped district, such as the "snake-on-the lake", which stretches from Toledo and Cleveland in order to gather a lot of Democratic voters. Hoffman believes that Democrats could have won more seats if they ran better campaigns in close-contested districts.
Huffman stated that those who simply want to say "Well, it's all due to what the districts look like" are simply lying. It's not about indexes or parties, it's about candidates.
Ohio voters have approved two constitutional amendments to prevent gerrymandering. They require bipartisan support for new maps that last at least ten years. These districts will be redrawn only four years after Republicans have passed maps that lack a certain amount of Democratic support.
Florida voters supported two "Fair Districts," constitutional amendments that prohibited lawmakers from drawing districts in favor of incumbents or political parties. After finding that the Republican-led Legislature had violated the ban on party favoritism, the state Supreme Court approved the creation of new districts. This cut the GOP's advantage in the 2016-2018 congressional election by half compared to the previous two elections under the Republican-drawn map.
Redistricting will be controlled by Republicans in twice the number of states than Democrats. However, in key states their advantage may not be as strong. Republican-led legislatures in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Wisconsin will be paired up with Democratic governors. Both states had full GOP control following the 2010 census. Redistricting in Michigan will be handled by a citizen commission approved by the voters, instead of legislators and the governor.
