Predicting the Oscar winners

"La La Land" is the 1st film in years to dominate Academy Award nominations with a record-tying 14 nods, but the question remains how numerous Oscars will the film take residence when the awards are handed out Sunday. "One of the large questions of the...

Predicting the Oscar winners

"La La Land" is the 1st film in years to dominate Academy Award nominations with a record-tying 14 nods, but the question remains how numerous Oscars will the film take residence when the awards are handed out Sunday. "One of the large questions of the...

24 February 2017 Friday 17:01
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Predicting the Oscar winners

"La La Land" is the 1st film in years to dominate Academy Award nominations with a record-tying 14 nods, but the question remains how numerous Oscars will the film take residence when the awards are handed out Sunday.

"One of the large questions of the evening will be how several Oscars is it going to win?" Yahoo! Films senior editor Kevin Polowy told ABC News. "Could it break the record at 11?"

"La La Land" is a single of only three films, along with 1950's "All About Eve" and 1997's "Titanic," to earn 14 nominations. As for the most Academy Awards won by a single film, 3 films are tied with 11 Oscars each: "Titanic," 1959's "Ben-Hur" and 2003's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King."

Whether it breaks the record, Polowy predicts that "La La Land" will surely be the night's significant winner, scooping up music and technical awards as effectively as some of the significant categories.

A further positive bet Sunday evening will be some winners of color in the acting categories.

"Right after two years of #OscarsSoWhite, you are going to see a a great deal different Oscars this year," he stated. "This was a definitely great year for films with people today of color."

It is also doable that for the very first time, there could be three black winners in the acting categories.

"It is going to be extremely refreshing to see at least two of the four acting races are going to be black winners," Polowy said, predicting that Mahershala Ali and Viola Davis will take household statuettes. "I also assume Denzel Washington is going to pull an upset. We could see some history getting made."

The other thing we should see plenty of are political speeches.

"If people thought the Oscars had been political just before, they haven't observed anything but," Polowy mentioned. "It will be surprising when there's a speech with out some mention of Trump or politics or what is taking place in the U.S. or abroad."

With a number of films that deal with significant social and political difficulties, and some nominees impacted by Trump administration policies, Polowy said the political speeches will probably occur "fairly organically."

Besides globe and social politics, Oscar politics are most likely to be at work as well when Sunday's winners are announced.

Take a look at Polowy's predictions for who will win the Oscar when the 89th Academy Awards are broadcast on ABC Sunday evening:

Most effective actor

Here is a category exactly where Oscar politics could play a function. Affleck was the early favorite for most of the award season, but Polowy thinks the "tide has turned" away from him.

"I've noticed a quiet construct of backlash against Casey Affleck simply because of these charges [of sexual harassment] lodged against him," Polowy explained, referring to the 2010 lawsuits brought against Affleck by two females who worked with him on the film "I’m Still Here."

Affleck, who denies the allegations, ended up settling the suits for an undisclosed amount the same year, but the issue resurfaced last year for the duration of the awards season. "From what I've gathered a lot of voters will have a difficult time voting for him," Polowy mentioned.

For that explanation, Polowy provides the edge to Washington, who is beloved in Hollywood and gave a single of the year's major acting performances in "Fences." He was also the surprise winner at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

"That helped us gauge that Affleck was susceptible to losing the Oscar," Polowy said.

PREDICTED WINNER: Denzel Washington

Ideal actress

Even with Stone going in as the preferred, Polowy mentioned there are at least 4 actresses in this category who stand a "halfway decent possibility" of winning. The fifth, Negga, gave an wonderful efficiency in "Loving," but Polowy said she was "already on the bubble to begin with."

Meanwhile, Huppert, the Golden Globe winner, probably stands the finest likelihood of upsetting Stone for the win. He cites other actors in foreign language films who have had surprise wins at the Oscars: Roberto Benigni, Marion Cotillard and Jean Dujardin.

Portman also stands an outdoors possibility for "Jackie," although she did win an Oscar just six years ago. Then again, you can't count out Streep or "call her underrated," Polowy mentioned, referring to President Trump's description of her just after she criticized him in the course of her Golden Globes keynote speech.

"Meryl Streep may possibly just get some votes since folks want to see her take down Trump once again," he said.

In the finish, even though, he believes Stone will prevail. "She is the heart and soul of 'La La Land.' She leaves her comfort zone to sing and dance and provides an emotionally layered performance," he mentioned. "And she's essentially due. She should have won for 'Birdman' a couple of years ago."

PREDICTED WINNER: Emma Stone

Best actor in a supporting function

Polowy calls Shannon his private choose. "It was one of my favored performances of the year, but the film fell below the radar a bit," he said of "Nocturnal Animals." "Michael Shannon steals the whole film."

That said, it really is Ali's year, Polowy said. "He's not in 'Moonlight' for that extended, but he has this lasting presence over the film." He also left a lasting impression on academy voters when he won the SAG award and gave an emotional, introspective speech about playing an unconventional character and being a Muslim.

"That evening I assume he locked up the Oscars," Polowy said.

PREDICTED WINNER: Mahershala Ali

Ideal actress in a supporting role

Polowy calls this the easiest of the four acting categories to predict. After three Oscar nominations, Davis, who has been scooping up awards all season, will take home her initial Oscar.

"She owns the single greatest acting moment of the year," he stated.

PREDICTED WINNER: Viola Davis

Best directing

In 25 of the final 30 years, the finest director and best picture Oscars have been in tandem. In other words, the most effective director Oscar ordinarily goes to the particular person who directs the greatest image Oscar winner. But in current years there has been a split, and Polowy predicts that will take place once more Sunday with the year's two finest films, "La La Land" and "Moonlight."

Even though Chazelle did wonders bringing the musical back to the big screen, Polowy believes Jenkins will win the Oscar for best director for his "beautifully shot, wistful and tender" "Moonlight."

Irrespective of whether it's Chazelle or Jenkins who wins, each could make history: Jenkins as the 1st black person to win the Oscar for ideal director and Chazelle as the youngest to win.

PREDICTED WINNER: Barry Jenkins

Finest picture

That leaves "La La Land" as the favored for best picture. "You have to assume with that many nominations, it is going to win ideal image," Polowy mentioned. "It is nevertheless regarded as the movie of the year."

There's normally the possibility that "Moonlight" could win, or even that "Hidden Figures" would pull an upset. "If there's any film's stock that has raised the most because the nominations, it's 'Hidden Figures.'"

PREDICTED WINNER: "La La Land"

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