The fluctuations in the Euribor as a result of the financial crisis in recent weeks have not stopped the reference rate for calculating variable mortgages from climbing in March to 3.647%. In this way, the credits that have to be reviewed according to the index of last month will suffer a more than 50% increase in their quotas.
The turbulence caused by the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Credit Suisse crises have managed to moderate the rise of the twelve-month Euribor. It is the smallest monthly increase since March 2022, far from the practically percentage point that climbed between August and September. A moderation in growth that has not prevented the rate from growing around 3.9% in the last year, since the Euribor in March 2022 was negative, at -0.237%.
The mortgage reference accumulates with this increase fifteen consecutive months on the rise. Although the data of 3.647% has yet to be confirmed in the coming days by the Bank of Spain, the Euribor has already accumulated a full year in positive territory. For 16 years this situation did not occur.
The direct consequence for families and companies with variable-rate mortgages will be a notable increase in the installments. For example, for a standard credit of 150,000 euros at 30 years that has a differential of Euribor plus 0.99 points, and that is revised with the data for March, the installment to be paid will be 772.56 euros per month. Until now that same mortgagee paid 465.63 euros. That is, the increase is 307 euros, 66%, which means 3,648 euros per year.
Another example: who formalized in March of last year a variable rate mortgage of 100,000 euros for 25 years started paying 366.55 euros and if they now have to review their installment they will pay 564.21 euros. It represents an increase of 54%, which means 209 euros more per month and 2,500 euros in a year.
And a third example: for a 30-year mortgage of 250,000 euros, calculated with the March reference rate plus 0.99 points, the monthly payment to be paid goes from 776.05 to 1,287.59 euros. It is a growth of 65%.
The closing of the Euribor in March at 3.647% was preceded by intense variations as a result of the SVB and Credit Suisse crises. The collapse of the US entity, in the first place, caused a general fall in the stock markets around the world, including the Spanish one. Hours later, the contagion moved to Signature Bank and First Republic Bank and, from there, it made the leap to Europe. The Swiss bank went bankrupt and UBS had to come to its aid by acquiring the entity for 3,000 million and the country's National Bank provided liquidity of close to 100,000 million.
After the turbulence, the Euribor fell to 3.36%, the lowest rate since January of this year. They were days of great volatility. However, the monetary policy of the central banks once again raised the reference. In this way, the decision of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 0.25 points on March 22, following in the wake of the European Central Bank, which maintained its roadmap with an increase of 0.5 points in rates on March 17, caused the Euribor to pick up again until closing the month with this moderate growth.
The great doubt of the experts is to know what will happen from now on. A second round effect is expected from April, just one year after the indicator turned positive. In other words, those with mortgages who have to recalculate their mortgages as of next month will already accumulate two consecutive positive annual increases. There are those who predict, like Asufin, that the Euribor will touch 4% in June.
