Income tax collection in the first two months has recorded the best start in the last 15 years in Spain. Net income grew by 11.8% accumulated in January and February compared to 9.4% last year. It is logical that in a normalized situation each year registers a growth in collection, but this year's increase is the largest in the historical series.
The Tax Agency gives some clues as to why. In February, in "the private sector, a new rise in wages can already be seen, significantly higher than that of 2022". The AEAT monthly report notes that "the information from Large Companies at constant population indicates that the salary increase in the first month of the year would have been 5.3% compared to 3.7% at the end of 2022 ”. This effect plus the maintenance of the rate of job creation explain the greater increase observed in retentions, adds the agency. Sources from the Tax Agency clarify that two months is a very short period to glimpse clear trends for the year as a whole.
Carlos Martín, director of the CC.OO. economic studies office, indicates that the salary increase statistics do not discriminate whether it is due to the increase in salaries or because the new hires charge more. In his opinion, the increase in collection is due to job creation, the type of jobs that are believed to have higher salaries and payroll increases. “Despite the loss of purchasing power, wages have grown,” he recalls. Only last year, the increases agreed in the agreement exceeded 3%.
In 2022 there was a record growth in collection, especially in personal income tax, where it increased by 15.8%. The director of Fedea, Ángel de la Fuente, points out that it is possible that in the increase in collection there is "some outcrop of submerged activity" and added that "inflation surely helps." In his opinion, "employment increases and more so declared employment" but even so, he notes that there is some unknown element that leads the collection to grow to such high levels.
At the regional level, in the main taxes collected in Catalonia, for example, there is an increase in the collection in inheritances and a drop in the ITPAJD, which is the tax linked to real estate purchases. In patrimony, the statistics are not significant with the first two months of the year since the collection usually occurs in the middle of the year. Sources from the Department of Economy directed by Natàlia Mas point out that "it seems logical that the drop in the ITPAJD is motivated by the rise in interest rates", which would have reduced real estate sales operations. Last year, Economy assured that the strong growth of the collection in that same tax is because decisions to purchase real estate were advanced before the rate rise. Regarding Inheritances, sources from the department assure that "the variations are random and it is difficult to isolate a factor that conditions the rises or falls".
Personal income tax collection in Spain as a whole via payroll withholdings is based on state tax rates, so it does not take into account the deflation carried out by half of the autonomous communities last year. Treasury sources explained that, in any case, the impact on collection in an aggregate manner is small.
From Funcas, the researcher Desiderio Romero believes that although there is some uncertainty, it is possible that "collection has a growing trend but not as much as in 2022." On the possibility that the underground economy explains part of the improvement in collection in recent months, Romero believes that the estimates on unregulated activity must be taken with "great caution" because they are very uncertain data.
