What would the national Assembly, if the deputies were elected by proportional representation, full or partial ?

proportional representation could make his return in the next general elections ? This method of voting, which is to assign the lists of candidates for seats in proportion to the votes they receive, has been used only once to elect the members of parliament under the Fifth Republic, in 1986. Since then, several political activists regularly for his recovery, at least in part.

Why proportional representation is she in the news ?

François Bayrou, president of the democratic Movement (MoDem), was sent on 4 February, a letter to the president of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, asking him to meet his campaign promise to introduce a share proportionate to the next legislative, scheduled for June 2022. In the aftermath, the president of the group MoDem to the national Assembly, Patrick Mignola, has successively introduced two legislative proposals for the legislative elections.

The first is to establish "a general election" mixed : the mode of the current electoral system would be maintained in the departments comprised of 11 members, but the members would be elected by proportional representation (without a threshold) in the departments that have more than twelve members. This is the case of the Bouches-du-Rhône, Rhône, Gironde, of the Nord, Pas-de-Calais, and the four departments of île de france (Yvelines, Paris, Hauts-de-Seine, Seine-Saint-Denis).

The second proposal of the bill is to establish a " proportional ". The text provides for the following terms : "The mps are elected in the overseas departments, which form a constituency, the party-list proportional-representation at the highest average. (...) Only are eligible for the allocation of seats in the lists which received at least 5% of votes cast. "

Read the analysis : proportional representation, a track against the concentration of power That is requesting the application of the proportional ?

Five political figures from a variety of different backgrounds have followed suit with Mr Bayrou by sending letters to the head of State to request the application of the proportional representation system, with different modalities. He is the president of groupe La France insoumise in the national Assembly, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the candidate ecologist in regional elections in the Ile-de-France, Julien Bayou, the chair of the group IDU and independent of the national Assembly, Jean-Christophe Lagarde, the president of the radical Movement, Laurent Hénart, or even the member of the Rassemblement national, Marine Le Pen.

Of other political parties such as the communist Party of france, or Standing in France have positioned themselves recently in favour of proportional representation. For the first secretary of the socialist Party, Olivier Faure, however, it is "too late" to implement such a reform. The party the Republicans, meanwhile, is hostile to this mode of election.

Why it gets stuck ?

The calendar to change the mode of election before the next general elections is very short. The law Richard, adopted in 2019, amended the electoral code, and states that" it cannot be carried to a change in the electoral system, or the perimeter of the district in the year preceding the first round of an election ". It remains, therefore, less than four months to try to implement proportional representation.

The majority is also divided on the subject. The spokesperson for the government, Gabriel Attal, recalled, on 10 February, the campaign pledge of president of the Republic was part of a broader reform of the institutions – that did not succeed after several reports related to the political context – including the reduction in the number of parliamentarians.

Read also that the proportional partial might change in the election of deputies

The former French president, François Hollande, had already shown during the 2012 campaign of its desire to introduce a dose of proportional representation in legislative elections, before going back on his promise during the quinquennium. This is hardly surprising, according to Jean-Pierre Camby, associate professor of constitutional law at the university of Versailles-Saint-Quentin and a member of the collective The Highlighters :

" In a general way, rather, it is the opposition which is in favour of proportional representation. When access to the power, we often forget this reform, which is a problem, because it takes the risk of a collapse of the majority in the next ballot. "

What to change it to the national Assembly ?

in order To understand the impact of the proportional, we tested the effect of which would have been produced by different modes of election from the results of the legislative elections on 11 and 18 June 2017.

For that, we have gathered the parties in blocks of sensitivities. These simulations, therefore, were not intended to illustrate the individual weight of a political party, but to show how the views would be represented in the case of proportional part or in full, in comparison with the current system. In fact, if the proportional had existed in 2017, the parties have not presented candidates in several constituencies would have been able to, at the scale of a department, to get more votes. Alliances, or, conversely, separate applications would have probably been observed.

The majority vote current

Thanks to the mode of the current electoral system, The Republic en marche (LRM) was obtained in June 2017 a large absolute majority (set at 289 seats) in the elections for the legislative.

A large absolute majority Composition of the national Assembly after the vote of the majority in two rounds of June 2017 Source : Ministry of the interior

" The method of majority voting helps ensure the consistency between the parliamentary majority and presidential, which is all the more obvious with the electoral calendar has been in use since 2002. Its detractors see it as an additional argument, " Mr. Camby.

The effects of a proportional partial

This system, which corresponds to one of the two legislative proposals of Mr. Mignola, combines the current voting procedures in the departments of the least populated and a proportional to a tour in the provinces that elect at least twelve members. In its explanatory memorandum, the chairman of the group MoDem accurate and that 22.5 % of the deputies would be elected by proportional representation.

An evolution of the marginal power relations Composition of the chamber if proportional representation had been applied (without threshold) in the departments of 12 or more members Source : Calculations with data from the ministry of the interior

With such a system, the representation would have varied little : the balance would be essentially the same and LRM would always be the absolute majority. One noteworthy fact is that the national Front (now national Rally) would have been able to form a parliamentary group, which requires them to obtain fifteen members.

To Mr. Camby, this mode of voting, similar to the system in force in the Senate (proportional in the departments of two senators or more), ensures a better political representation, " but it would create an inequality in the modes of election between those who can claim to be directly elected by their constituents and the other ". And ask a specific question : "How to departments which elected one or two mps ? "

The effects of a proportional integral

This is the second legislative proposal submitted by Mr. Mignola. It is identical to the mode of election of the legislative elections of 1986.

No party would not have the absolute majority Composition of the national Assembly, with the proportional integral (5% threshold) level, departmental, as in 1986 Source : Context Powers and calculations

With this system, the lower house would look like more of a photograph of the public opinion. But no political sensitivity does not get an absolute majority, which would make alliances and compromises on the bottom. The situation is summarized by Mr. Camby : "With proportional representation, it is necessary parties sufficiently anchored in the country, to the disadvantage of the crumbling of the representation is not too disruptive. "

Olivier Modez

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