The PP has jumped at the government's jugular. Alberto Núñez Feijóo accuses Pedro Sánchez of delving into an "authoritarian drift" with the changes announced in the Penal Code. Vox announces motion of no confidence. Yolanda Díaz marks distances with the embezzlement reform. And some barons of the PSOE, beyond the two usual dissenting voices (Castilla-La Mancha and Aragón), are very concerned about the accusations of modifying a crime of corruption downwards to satisfy the independence movement. Not to mention the judicial establishment, whose leadership has been scandalized with the Government for a long time, since the pardons. Since all of them are predictable reactions, why does Sánchez get involved in this embezzlement mess? Doesn't he remember that in less than six months there are municipal and regional elections and, in a year, general ones? Does the president Have you become addicted to political risk?
Sánchez already has the ERC vote guaranteed for the state budget. He achieved it with the elimination of the crime of sedition and the modification of the article on aggravated public disorder. The Republicans also wanted the embezzlement reform, but this was no longer an essential condition to give their support to the accounts. Even earlier the president could have extended them if he had concluded that eliminating sedition would jeopardize his re-election as president, despite his efforts to demonstrate the strength of his cabinet with the approval of three consecutive budgets. But Sánchez came to the conclusion that the pardons for the leaders of the process were well digested by Spanish society, thanks to the political calm that has settled in Catalonia. Hence his conviction that eliminating sedition will not cause any movement of socialist voters towards other options. In the opinion of Moncloa, all Ciudadanos voters likely to be recruited have already assumed the "deflation" policy in Catalonia.
Embezzlement reform, however, ventures into more swampy terrain. We are talking about a crime that the population identifies with the corruption of politicians. Any à la carte modification is interpreted as a tailor-made suit, not only for the independentistas, but also for the political class in general. Even formations such as United We Can, which in their day agreed and even promoted pardons or changes regarding sedition, now view this intervention with suspicion. But the president has come to the conclusion that, if he doesn't, the consequences could be worse. In other words, pardons and sedition would not have been of much use for the main objective of consolidating political normalization in Catalonia.
Throughout the mandate, the discourse of the counterparts has prevailed. In other words, Sánchez agreed to take these measures in exchange for ERC's support for governance. Something totally true. Without these steps, it is very possible that the Republicans would have disengaged from the progressive government, even putting its viability at risk or favoring the arrival of a right-wing Executive. At least they would have made life much more difficult for Sanchez. But at this point in the Spanish legislature, the main motivation is to avoid taking steps back in the "deflation", since the political tranquility in Catalonia, as opposed to the convulsion experienced during the stage of the PP of Mariano Rajoy, It has become one more electoral argument for Sánchez.
And without a change in embezzlement, it was very possible that several pro-independence leaders, former positions in the Catalan administration during 2017, would be sentenced to prison terms. The return to the image of politicians going to jail, the yellow ribbons and the insistent discourse of "repression" is something that Sánchez wants to avoid completely, since it is a story that, in turn, feeds the Junts vote, of the PP and Vox. It would also be a setback for the PSC, now that Salvador Illa considers that his party is in a position to compete for the mayoralty of Barcelona and for the presidency of the Generalitat.
Deep down, Sánchez hopes that the embezzlement reform does not cause unwanted side effects, as has happened with the sexual freedom law, known as the "only yes is yes law." The Socialists believe that even the effects of the application of the latter have been more harmful than what can happen with regard to the process. It will all depend on how the embezzlement amendments are applied. If it only applies to the pro-independence leaders, Sánchez hopes the storm will blow over in no time. Even if it didn't serve the objective being pursued, he could argue in Catalonia that he has tried everything possible. But if only one of the politicians convicted of corruption benefited from this reform, Sánchez will regret having gotten into this mess.
