Who will win in Barcelona?

Tomorrow there will be two months left for the municipal elections and the question that is repeated the most is who will win in Barcelona? The answer is that one thing is who will win the elections and another very different is who will govern.

Oliver Thansan
Oliver Thansan
26 March 2023 Sunday 21:44
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Who will win in Barcelona?

Tomorrow there will be two months left for the municipal elections and the question that is repeated the most is who will win in Barcelona? The answer is that one thing is who will win the elections and another very different is who will govern. Because it is possible that the same formula that four years ago broke the unwritten tradition by which the candidate with the most votes always occupied the mayoralty of the city is repeated. Therefore, this time he can win one again and another govern. In this sense, the existing polarization up to now in the electoral pre-campaign between Ada Colau (BComú) and the candidate Xavier Trias (Junts) is already leading to the virtual composition of two party blocs. One of them is linked to the continuity embodied by the mayoress and the other is related to the change poster that the former mayor intends to lead to unite the state of majority opinion that suspends the management of the City Council.

Any of the candidates with the possibility of winning will be obliged to agree because none will obtain an absolute majority on their own. This reality has led to the fact that a blackboard has been posted in the headquarters of the parties where there is speculation about the placement of the parties in one of the two aforementioned blocks. In this sense, the so-called small parties are the ones that have been most clearly defined. Citizens, Valents, PP and Vox have declared that they will never vote for Colau, while the CUP is closer to the mayoress's postulates. We will see how many of these formations will manage to enter the Consistory, but they can be key to forming a majority even if they have very few councillors.

Discounting the commons and the ex-convergents, who will never go together in the same bloc, the question is to know what the other two big parties (ERC and PSC) will do. If we review the statements of Republicans and Socialists we can sense where the shots will go. Due to the almost impossible alliance between the ERC and the PSC (they can hardly stand each other) and the bad vibes between the Republicans and Junts after the break in the Generalitat government, it can be concluded that Ernest Maragall will have a greater tendency to agree with BComú. For their part, the Socialists could leave the door open to agree again with Colau as long as she wins the elections. In the event of the defeat of the mayoress, it is plausible to think of a PSC agreement with Junts that goes beyond the walls of Barcelona and includes institutions as powerful as the Provincial Council, where they have governed this legislature together.

This agreement between Junts and PSC would be more or less explicit depending on whether one of the two obtains electoral victory. If Trias wins, the PSC can vote for itself and allow the list with the most votes to become mayor. If Collboni wins, it will be easier to know what Trias will do because he has already said that, in this case, he will give his votes to the Socialist. This is how we are: Two blocks for a single chair.