Next Monday, the Vox parliamentary group will register in the Congress of Deputies the sixth motion of no confidence in democracy, which on this occasion will be led for the first time by a candidate who is not in Congress or even in active politics, the economist with a communist past Ramón Tamames, 89 years old.
The political trajectory of the candidate and the current political situation offer some unknowns regarding the initiative, such as what Tamames will defend in his speech, when the motion will be voted on or who can benefit or harm. However, parliamentary arithmetic gives a certainty: it will not prosper.
One of the first issues to be resolved is the date on which the motion is debated and voted on, which will ultimately depend on the president of Congress, the socialist Meritxell Batet. Article 177 of the Regulations of Congress stipulates that "the motion or motions of censure will be put to a vote at the time that has previously been announced by the Presidency and that may not be earlier than five days from the presentation of the first in the General Registry", with which the only sure thing is that the initiative cannot be voted on before Saturday, March 5.
Previously, the Board of Congress must admit it for processing after verifying that the motion of censure meets the requirements. This is scheduled to happen on Tuesday, March 7, but it cannot be ruled out that it will take place next week. Be that as it may, the date of the debate and vote depends on Batet, which could place them in March or even April. In the case of the last motion of no confidence, for example, Vox registered it on September 29 and the debate and vote took place on October 21 and 22. Tamames himself, contacted by La Vanguardia, points out March 15 as the ideal day for this debate. "The Ides of March", he evokes in allusion to the assassination of Julius Caesar.
The economist will lead Vox's motion of no confidence but this Thursday he has assured that Santiago Abascal's formation has given him "absolute freedom" to "say what he thinks" based on his "experience and appreciations". "No one has put a request on me of what I can say," warns the candidate, who in any case refuses to reveal any of the content of his speech on which he has been working for weeks despite having accepted Vox's offer on Tuesday . To do so would be, in his opinion, "defrauding the staff," insists the candidate, for whom the recipients of his speech are the Spaniards through the 350 deputies depository of national sovereignty and the 55 Vox proponents.
However, the newspaper El Mundo publishes this Thursday that the candidate has agreed with the far-right formation not to talk about feminism -especially gender violence and abortion-, LGTBI rights, and the autonomous model, all of which are issues in the that he would maintain disagreements with Abascal's party. Instead, he would address economic policy, the unity of Spain and the defense of the Constitution, according to the newspaper. In this regard, the candidate limits himself to pointing out that the important thing will be "the review that I am going to give to what is happening in the economy, society and international relations in Spain."
No. The regulations of the Congress establish that the approval of a motion of censure will require, in any case, the favorable vote of the absolute majority of the members of the Congress of Deputies, this supposes 176 votes of the Chamber. At the moment the initiative has only the 55 Vox deputies. The PP, which has always been opposed to the initiative, has at most opened the door to abstain but not to vote in favor and Ciudadanos, who months ago was in favor of presenting a motion of censure, yesterday announced that it would vote against. The rest of the groups are also expected to vote no. Tamames himself is clear: "I have my doubts, reasonable doubts," he admits when asked about the success of the motion. "The stake is very big and the bookies wouldn't have put it in the best situation," he adds.
Tamames, in a recent interview with EFE, explained that he wanted to invite the Prime Minister he intends to succeed to lunch or dinner if he finally accepted Vox's offer. This same Thursday, Tamames has confirmed to La Vanguardia that he maintains this intention and that he will immediately submit a request to La Moncloa in this regard. "It seems to me that it is normal in civilized people, and the president is, undoubtedly," he says. The ball, in any case, is at this point in Pedro Sánchez's roof.
The motion of censure in Spain, whenever it succeeds, serves to replace the Government, so that a priori this type of initiative tends to harm the current Executive and benefit the opposition. Even if it does not prosper, it can have a similar effect to the extent that it contributes to questioning government policies and making the opposition visible.
However, on this occasion the initiative can serve the Executive of Pedro Sánchez to cover the internal discrepancies due to the reform of the law of only yes is yes. In fact, the consideration of the PSOE's proposal to reform the rule will most likely coincide with the admission of the motion for processing on March 7. To the extent that the motion moves away from the approval of this reform and approaches the municipal and regional elections in May, it can benefit the Government more.
It is precisely this argument that the PP uses to insult Vox's initiative and label it a "clear error" since "it would serve nothing more than to reinforce whoever wins the motion."
On the right, the only beneficiary could be Vox, which would suddenly attract the media spotlight with an unprecedented initiative in Spain: an independent with a very particular biography leading a motion of no confidence. However, the challenge is not without risks for the extreme right. Everything will depend on the balance that the candidate can maintain between his own reflections and the ideas of the proposing group. Excessive discrepancies could have a disastrous effect on Abascal's strategy, whose electoral expectations were severely curbed and have remained stagnant since the rise of Alberto Núñez Feijóo to the presidency of the PP.
