The international withdrawal of the US is threatened by China, the prince who disputes the throne; a Russia eager to reconquer what it once had and an EU touched by war and weakened by differences between member states. Each of these agents plays a fundamental role on the chessboard of this nuclear age.
"If the total number of nuclear weapons has decreased from about 14,540 five years ago to about 12,705 today, aren't we almost 2,000 bombs safer?"
With this question, researcher Matt Korda begins his journey through the ins and outs of nuclear rearmament in the latest issue of Vanguardia Dossier. The picture is not very hopeful: "The nuclear-armed countries are not very interested in adopting measures that offer transparency and predictability in an otherwise unpredictable world."
The war between Russia and Ukraine, with all its intermediaries, has reduced the Non-Proliferation Treaty to nothing, giving shape to “a new security paradigm marked by reliance on nuclear weapons” (Dan Smith). Gun control has become, in this scenario, a vast off-limits field that can only be crossed on tiptoe.
A field that, although complex and reserved for those who pull the strings, puts questions on the table: Who does nuclear peace favor? Is it fair to deny peace to those who lack an atomic weapon? Is the arms race a bottomless pit? What is the real threat of a war of nuclear dimensions? And how are digitization and artificial intelligence implemented in the new cold war? Vanguardia Dossier delves into these issues.
The nuclear doctrine thus distances the focus from other problems that are pressing in our time, such as climate change, pandemics or systematic violence in some states.
Disarmament, once a humanitarian and environmental imperative, is now a dream of the past, relegated to forced and empty statements by policymakers. Meanwhile, the powers try to strengthen control over their opponents.
And not only the powers -explains Lydia Wachs-, but also other actors with smaller nuclear arsenals, such as the United Kingdom, France, India, Pakistan and Israel, have joined the modernization of their nuclear weapons.
In turn, North Korea is increasing its deterrent power: "It is no longer a proliferating country but rather a possessor of nuclear weapons," says Ankit Panda. Australia also veers course, with an agreement that moves away from the usual policies of a country that is very active against proliferation.
Before this progressive military rearmament that seems to lead us to the abyss, some ray of light appears. The hope, according to Toby Dalton, is that nuclear power will fuel the transition from fossil fuels to renewables in the fight against the climate crisis.
