The 28-M will offer many conclusions, and some clues, of the political scenarios that will take shape in Spain in the coming months. One of them will be the case of the PSOE, a party that has entered the terrain of marginality in Madrid and that has begun a long journey through the desert in Andalusia, both now governed by the PP. But more things can happen to you. It could happen that the PSC maintains the type in Catalonia in its municipalities, winning Jaume Collboni the mayoralty of Barcelona, and that the PSPV and the PSIB maintain the presidencies of the Valencian Community and the Balearic Islands; with Ximo Puig and Francina Armengol, as well as Salvador Illa, leaders of a Mediterranean, federalist and peripheral socialism, in better shape than central and southern, Jacobin socialism.
The opposite could happen. That this socialism away from the plateau drives, so radial they are, have a bad result; It would be, in territorial terms, very bad news for the PSOE. If the PSC, PSPV and PSIB fail, an important part of Spanish socialism fails, with probable consequences in the short, medium and long term. The "other" PSOE has been almost annulled in the great sounding board that is Madrid, city and autonomy, with all that this entails in a radio media ecosystem of an increasingly centralized State; but it is also a disoriented PSOE in Andalusia, in search of a new identity, as Carlos Mármol describes well: and weak in Galicia and Murcia, already converted into lifelong fiefdoms of the right; territories where the PP has achieved absolute hegemony, in votes and in proposals.
Ximo Puig leads a PSPV that in 2015 was a unifying reference for all possible lefts to form a stable government for eight years. A Valencian "formula" that, together with Compromís and Unides Podem, served as a test for the subsequent coalition in the Spanish Government. The Valencian president has symbolized, and led, that other Mediterranean PSOE, with a possible and pragmatic vision of Girondin Spain, with an open look at the entente with the political forces of other peripheries. Far removed from the Jacobinism of other socialist barons such as Emiliano García-Page or Javier Lambán. He has also been a necessary and key ally at specific times for Pedro Sánchez on issues such as the dialogue with the independentistas or the PSOE pacts in Congress with other nationalist forces. A sensitivity that Illa and Armengol have also shown.
The Mediterranean PSOE led by the PSPV is being examined this 28M, and according to the results it will be possible to intuit the effects that victories or defeats in the three aforementioned geographies - Barcelona in the Catalan case, autonomy and capitals in the Valencian and Balearic cases - will have on the future of Spanish socialism, which will be re-examined in the general elections. It could happen that if Illa, Puig and Armengol come out of the appointments successfully, the PSOE will open up a more sensitive look at the keys that allow the socialism installed in the old Crown of Aragon to continue in better shape than the central and southern PSOE Faced with this new wave of the PP that from Madrid has annulled plateau socialism and yearns to achieve the same objective in all the peripheries. Madrid and Valencia summarize as few regions two antagonistic models of understanding management in Spain, and the two versions of the Spanish PSOE have a lot to do with it. That battle is also part of the 28M results.