Each increase in the minimum interprofessional salary is usually accompanied by its corresponding controversy and the same is happening with the one that the Government is preparing for 2023, which can take the SMI from the current 1,000 euros per month to an amount close to 1,100 euros. From the outset, everything depends on the commission of experts who will present their proposal in a couple of weeks, which will then be debated in the social dialogue.
They are experts who also have three reports provided by economists external to the commission and who generally support the rise in the SMI, because it reduces both salary and income inequality and poverty, although one of the works warns of negative effects. Specifically, it indicates a reduction in the jobs that would have been created without this increase.
In the report prepared by the economist Sara de la Rica, from ISEAK, it is stated that "the increase in the SMI had a null impact on employment in the short term and a negative, although limited, impact in the medium term" Specifically, as of In 2019, when the SMI increased to 900 euros, in the first six months there was no effect.However, later a brake is seen that culminates after a year "with a slight negative impact on employment". Specifically, " the impact of the SMI is very small in the short term, although it increases slightly over time, both in terms of reduction of hours worked and loss of employment”, says the report that the SER advanced and to which La Vanguardia has had access .
Specifically, it is calculated that if the possibility of remaining in employment had been 76.5% without the increase in the SMI, with this increase it would remain at 73.7%, which leads to a difference of 2.8 percentage points . Two thirds of the negative impact represents a loss of employment and the rest a reduction in the working day. In addition, it points out that people over 30 are the ones who suffer the most from job loss, while those under this age are more affected by the reduction in hours worked.
The same report also points out positive aspects of the increase in the SMI, such as reducing wage inequality, so that people with lower incomes slightly increase their share of wage income and income after the rise in the minimum wage. It also details how the increase in income stands out in women and foreigners, but in young people.
The two other reports underline the positive consequences of the increase in the SMI. The one prepared by the Complutense University qualifies it as “an effective instrument to reduce the existing inequality in the labor market”, because it reduced the percentage of people with salary income below the poverty line. It also reduced wage inequality, improving the situation of women, those under 35 years of age or workers with a low level of training.
On the other hand, the third report, that of the University of Alcalá, considers that the increase in the SMI in 2019 made it possible to improve the equity of income distribution and help households that were below the poverty line.
