Two 'bean counters' in Moncloa

And now that? Facts.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
16 July 2022 Saturday 11:01
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Two 'bean counters' in Moncloa

And now that? Facts. "You have to see facts." The Government and the Generalitat have met more than ever since Catalangate was uncovered and institutional relations were frozen, but the Palau has reached the limit of photos and they need tangible agreements that underpin ERC's commitment to dialogue and its alliance with the PSOE in Madrid. "More important than words are facts." Pere Aragonès and Pedro Sánchez acted in Moncloa as authentic government bean counters. Doing nothing is not an option and the cost-benefit of their relationship outweighs in terms of power the electoral losses that a breakup would entail. So damage containment is imposed and "facts and specifications" are committed in ten days.

For ERC, Sánchez "has finished the credit" granted in his investiture. Not only his: "He cannot afford to do without" the PNV and "he will never be able to govern" without Bildu and ERC. Aragonès needs facts... and Sánchez is only afraid of inflation, he has come out stronger from the Congress exam and has recovered ERC in the voting, without mentioning Pegasus and avoiding the Catalan folder.

The Catalan "political conflict" was conspicuous by its absence in Sánchez's speech in Congress. He clung to the "emotional gap" and the "reunion", also "between Catalans". And, ruling out a complete solution –“we are very far away”–, what is imposed is living with the problem, breaking it up into partial agreements until the underlying conflict is minimized. Aragonès does not appeal to an impossible commitment from Sánchez for a referendum, he prioritizes putting an end to the trickle of judicial processes that threaten dozens of pro-independence positions and the pragmatic strategy of the ERC.

In the dialogue table formulas of dejudicialization will be put with the pressure of the calendar. In October, trial of Roger Torrent; later, Josep Maria Jové, Lluís Salvadó, Natàlia Garriga... In parallel, ERC will brandish its 13 decisive votes for the budgets that Sánchez needs. Now there is a negotiation procedure and also a countdown. If the acceleration of the dialogue table is a step that benefits ERC, the municipal elections are its dead-line.

But Sánchez knows that the total "reunion" without Junts does not exist, hence his insistence on incorporating the postconvergents into the dialogue table. Being only the leader of the PSOE, in a meeting with Carles Puigdemont at the Palau de la Generalitat in March 2016, Sánchez already declared a "thaw stage" with the Generalitat to have begun. It didn't last long. Now the alliance with ERC is far-reaching, but in the new thaw, Sánchez insists on making Junts the recipient of part of the pact signed by Félix Bolaños and Laura Vilagrà: "the agreements must start from the recognition of the different political and social visions" and “to be representative of a wide transversal social majority”.

In Moncloa they may have seen the possibility of attributing the slowness in reaching far-reaching agreements to the absence of Junts at the table; but if ERC cannot give up the dialogue, Junts cannot join the pragmatic meanwhile of the Republicans without a swerve in its confrontation strategy.

Aragonès diligently conveyed to Jordi Turull and Jordi Puigneró the content of the meeting with Sánchez, but recalled that "only governments" can sit at the dialogue table. The president remains firm and is cautious in his movements. He did not even include Puigdemont in his defense of dejudicialization of the conflict. "I will not negotiate your situation with the Spanish government." The former president thanked him. He rejects personal “happy solutions” –according to Miquel Iceta– and prefers to fight in the European courts, even though the report by the EU Advocate General leads to restarting the Belgian wheel of extraditions.

And Junts continues to unravel its road map. This weekend's congress was supposed to determine the future of the party, the Government and the municipal strategy, but it has resulted in an obligatory act of adherence to Laura Borràs. Although there are also attempts to limit collateral damage. The problem has been encapsulated, there are no threats, no confrontation with the partners beyond rejecting the accusation of corruption. Junts has also imposed the cost-benefit criterion in its decisions.