The American psychologist Leon Festinger infiltrated a sect in Minnesota to study how its members reacted when their firm belief that aliens would arrive on December 21 to take them to a distant planet in their flying saucers was not fulfilled. Instead of admitting that they were wrong, they attributed the event to a "scheduling error" and became even more fanatical.
The British Tories are a bit like the members of that sect. In an attempt to prove that Brexit was a great idea, since 2016 they have become more and more radical in their ultra-liberal proselytizing. They went from the compassionate conservatism (although in reality it was far from so, and imposed brutal austerity) of David Cameron and Theresa May, to the populist and reactionary authoritarianism of Johnson (with social winks in the economic sphere), and the radical neoliberalism of Liz Truss, never finding the Holy Grail. On the contrary, the country is more decrepit, with the highest inequality in Europe after Bulgaria, less foreign investment, a current account deficit that is 8% of GDP and a 16% decrease in exports to the EU.
What will they do now, when the empirical data suggests that Brexit, the original sin, is largely to blame for the problems (with the help of the pandemic, Putin, the war in Ukraine, the US Federal Reserve and the inevitable end of the era of cheap money)? Continue to deny that leaving Europe is responsible for anything, and elect a fifth prime minister in six years, to see if this time the flute sounds and he is the one who takes them to that lost paradise of unfettered national sovereignty and a rich economy without immigrants.
Yesterday they unceremoniously got rid of a Liz Truss who had been doomed since the markets forced her to tear her entire financial program to shreds. “I have tried to take advantage of Brexit to create a fast-growing low-tax economy, but I cannot fulfill the mission for which I was elected and I am resigning as Conservative leader,” she declared without visible emotion at the door of Downing Street just before the heavens opened. But no UFO fell from them, only a torrential rain that washed away the ocher leaves of the trees. And her short tenure.
The last race for the Tory succession only ended in August with the election of Truss, and we are already in another one. The potential candidates to act as leader of the sect that has become the alpha party of British politics are the same as last time (ministers or former ministers Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Ben Wallace...) , with the possible appendage of Boris Johnson, just three months after his spectacular fall. The militants would certainly give it another chance, but it is doubtful that the parliamentary group will.
In part, to speed up the process and in part to prevent Johnson from winning, the Conservative Party has determined that the support of at least one hundred deputies (there are a total of 357) is needed to aspire to leadership, something that in the The last contest was only won by former Chancellor of Finance Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Minister Penny Mordaunt. The first two votes will be held on Monday, eliminating whoever gets the fewest votes. If there are two names left, they will be submitted to the bases so that they can vote electronically on Friday. If there is only one, it will be crowned by acclamation. Jeremy Hunt, who is acting as regent, does not appear, but will continue to hold the reins.
If it is Rishi Sunak, the new premier will be richer than King Charles. But whoever it is will have its hands tied, with the UK virtually intervened by the markets (albeit in a less ostentatious way than Alexis Tsipras's Greece), which have imposed their conditions - brutal cuts and a new austerity coinciding with the crisis in the cost of living and the rise in interest rates–, as if the sixth largest economy in the world were that of a Central American republic or an emerging country. The future looks bleak for the British, with old infrastructures, seven million on the waiting list for operations and schools that are literally collapsing.
The Minnesota sect blamed the aliens' lack of punctuality on a miscalculation, and Brexiteers blame "centre Stalinism." The Minnesota sect continued with its leader, and the conservative has changed it again, to see if it is right.
