The intricate negotiation of the last major package of sanctions against Moscow, with the Hungarian government blocking the embargo on Russian oil for weeks, left Brussels with a bittersweet taste and a growing fear of the appearance of cracks in the support strategy for Ukraine .
Viktor Orbán has not moderated his aggressive rhetoric against European policies one iota; rare is the day when he does not warn that the Union is shooting itself in the foot. The economic and political context is complicated at times. But yesterday the Twenty-seven saved their unity again and gave the green light in record time to a new round of sanctions against Russia in response to the illegal annexation of four occupied Ukrainian regions.
“We will never accept Putin's mock referendums or any kind of annexation of Ukraine. We are determined that the Kremlin pay for its actions”, declared the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, after the ambassadors of the 27 countries of the Union agreed on the text of the new round of sanctions against Moscow, the eighth, which includes a cap on the price of Russian oil exports outside the Union, in line with the G7 decision. It had only been a week since von der Leyen proposed the plan.
The modalities of implementing the decision on Russian oil are yet to be determined and there are doubts about the extent to which it will be effective in draining revenue from the Kremlin, especially now that OPEC has announced a production cut that will keep prices high for a season. The agreement does not set a fixed price for this product but commits the EU to meet regularly with the G7 partners to set a variable cap depending on market conditions and obliges European operators (shipping companies, insurers, and other intermediaries) not to collaborate in its export below that price.
This time the resistance did not come from Hungary but from Greece, Cyprus and Malta, the countries with the most interests in the maritime transport of Russian oil, which gave in after receiving guarantees that their activity would be protected against fraud. The sanctions, whose final text will be known today, reinforce the trade embargo to include key technologies and industries for Russian public coffers and the modernization of the country.
The list of personalities punished for their support of Kremlin policies is also expanded. It could include, among others, the ultranationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin, but not, despite pressure from Warsaw and the Baltic countries, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Cyril I, who was already saved in extremis in June by Orbán. The EU has also refrained from vetoing all energy cooperation with Moscow, which would have created problems with Hungary, which is working on a new nuclear power plant using Russian technology. "The package could have been more powerful but, since unanimity is needed, it is important that we give this strong response to Russia's latest aggressive steps," said Poland's ambassador to the EU, Andrzej Sados.
The agreement on the new round of sanctions against Russia is a good letter of introduction for the EU ahead of the first meeting of the new European Political Community, the new "area of cooperation" devised by Emmanuel Macron as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is being held today in Prague. The event takes place in the majestic medieval castle that presides over the Czech capital and will bring together 44 international leaders from the Greater Europe area.
All the guests have confirmed their attendance: the leaders of the 27 EU countries and 17 from outside, from Norway to Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Turkey, the Balkan republics, Azerbaijan, Armenia or Georgia. Virtually the entire continent except Russia and Belarus. That is why, on this occasion, more than ever "the photo is the message", say the thinkers Luuk van Middelaar and Hans Kribbe, who defend that, if done well, the format can serve to strengthen cooperation and anchor these countries "on our side" and against Putin's Russia.
If in any international summit it is delicate to manage the egos of politicians and the countries they represent at the time of photos, speeches and tables, the Prague summit has been a major political puzzle for European diplomacy. It even took a dress rehearsal, with the presence of the Sherpas of the 44 invited leaders, to get an idea of how the delicate choreography would work.
The debates have been organized around two major issues (energy and security) with the leaders spread over four tables, which should give room to avoid diplomatic incidents. Thus, Turkish President Recep Tayipp Erdogan will not sit down with the leaders of Greece and Cyprus, Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Nikos Anastasidis. The representatives of Serbia and Kosovo, on the one hand, and Azerbaijan and Armenia on the other, will also be far away. The President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, will share a table with the British Prime Minister, Liz Truss, who agreed to attend the summit after obtaining guarantees from Macron that it will not be an appendage of the EU. Also sitting with them will be the leaders of Albania and North Macedonia, who in their case fear the forum is an alternative to EU membership, their ultimate goal.
